한국항해항만학회지 (Journal of Navigation and Port Research)

  • 제48권2호
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  • Pages.109-115
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  • 2024
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  • 1598-5725(pISSN)
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  • 2093-8470(eISSN)
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
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A Study on the Insolvency Prediction Model for Korean Shipping Companies

  • Myoung-Hee Kim (Department of Shinpping Management, National Korea Maritime & Ocean University)
  • 투고 : 2024.04.15
  • 심사 : 2024.04.26
  • 발행 : 2024.04.30
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초록

To develop a shipping company insolvency prediction model, we sampled shipping companies that closed between 2005 and 2023. In addition, a closed company and a normal company with similar asset size were selected as a paired sample. For this study, data of a total of 82 companies, including 42 closed companies and 42 general companies, were obtained. These data were randomly divided into a training set (2/3 of data) and a testing set (1/3 of data). Training data were used to develop the model while test data were used to measure the accuracy of the model. In this study, a prediction model for Korean shipping insolvency was developed using financial ratio variables frequently used in previous studies. First, using the LASSO technique, main variables out of 24 independent variables were reduced to 9. Next, we set insolvent companies to 1 and normal companies to 0 and fitted logistic regression, LDA and QDA model. As a result, the accuracy of the prediction model was 82.14% for the QDA model, 78.57% for the logistic regression model, and 75.00% for the LDA model. In addition, variables 'Current ratio', 'Interest expenses to sales', 'Total assets turnover', and 'Operating income to sales' were analyzed as major variables affecting corporate insolvency.

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참고문헌

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