한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제57권4호
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  • Pages.237-248
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  • 2024
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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Budyko 가설 기반 기후 탄력성을 고려한 기후변동이 우리나라 중권역 유출량 변화에 미치는 영향 평가

Assessment of the impact of climate variability on runoff change of middle-sized watersheds in Korea using Budyko hypothesis-based equation

  • 오미주 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 홍다희 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 임경진 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 권현한 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과)
  • Oh, Mi Ju (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Hong, Dahee (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Lim, Kyung Jin (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 투고 : 2023.12.22
  • 심사 : 2024.03.22
  • 발행 : 2024.04.30
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초록

수문 순환의 중요한 구성 요소인 유역 유출량은 기후변동과 인간 활동의 영향으로 전 세계 많은 유역에서 크게 변화되고 있다. 기후변동과 인간 활동으로 변화되고 있는 유역 유출량에 대한 분석은 수자원 관리에 있어서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 5개 권역의 109개 중권역의 유출량 자료를 대상으로 기후변동과 인간 활동이 유역 유출량에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 유역 유출량 자료에 대하여 Pettitt 검정을 수행하여 분석 기간을 나누었으며, Budyko 기반 기후 탄력성 방법을 이용하여 기후변동과 인간 활동이 유역 유출량의 변화에 미치는 영향을 구분하였다. 본 연구 결과, 중권역마다 유역 유출량 변화에 기후변동과 인간 활동이 미치는 상대적인 기여도가 다양하게 나타났으며, 중권역별로 유역 유출량의 변화에 지배적인 영향을 주는 요인이 무엇인지 파악하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 기후변동과 유역 개발 계획에 따른 유역 유출량 변화를 예측할 수 있도록 하며, 이는 가뭄이나 홍수 등 수문 재해의 위험을 줄이기 위한 수자원 관리 계획을 수립하는데 중요한 정보가 될 것이다.

Watershed runoff that is an important component of the hydrological processes has been significantly altered by climate variability and human activities in many watersheds around the world. It is important to investigate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change for water resource management. In this study, using watershed runoff data for 109 middle-sized watersheds in Korea, the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change were quantitatively evaluated. Using the Pittitt test, the analysis period was divided into two sub-periods, and the impacts of climate variability and human activities on the watershed runoff change were quantified using the Budyko hypothesis-based climate elasticity method. The overall results indicated that the relative contribution of climate variability and human activities to the watershed runoff change varied by middle-sized watersheds, and the dominant factors on the watershed runoff change were identified for each watershed among climate variability and human activities. The results of this study enable us to predict the watershed runoff change considering climate variability and watershed development plans, which provides useful information for establishing a water resource management plan to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters such as drought or flood.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 행정안전부 재난안전 공동연구 기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(2022-MOIS63-001(RS-2022-ND641011))

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