Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment (생태와환경)

The Korean Society of Limnology (한국수생태학회)
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Predicting the Habitat Changes of Abies koreana under SSP Climate Scenarios

SSP 시나리오에 따른 구상나무(Abies koreana)의 잠재 서식지 변화 예측

  • Jae-Ho Lee (Ecological Information Team, National Institute of Ecology) ;
  • Jae-Seok Lee (Department of Biological Sciences, Konkuk University) ;
  • Changwan Seo (Division of Ecological Research Strategy, National Institute of Ecology)
  • 이재호 (국립생태원 생태정보팀) ;
  • 이재석 (건국대학교 생명과학특성학과) ;
  • 서창완 (국립생태원 생태연구전략실)
  • Received : 2024.12.01
  • Accepted : 2024.12.09
  • Published : 2024.12.31
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Abstract

Climate change significantly impacts biodiversity, particularly for endemic species in restricted habitats. This study focuses on the Korean fir (Abies koreana), an alpine conifer species in South Korea, to evaluate potential habitat changes under SSP climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Using high-resolution ensemble climate data from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and integrating 10 species distribution models(SDMs) into an ensemble model, we predicted habitat suitability for the period 2010~2090. The species data was refined and constructed with a focus on location data so that it could be used in this model, using the National Ecosystem Survey, Baekdudaegan Conservation Area Survey of the National Institute of Ecology, and the National Park Natural Resources DB of National Park Service. The results identified BIO1 (mean annual temperature) and BIO13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month) as the most influential bioclimatic variables for habitat suitability. SSP1-2.6 exhibited fluctuating habitat area with partial recovery by 2070s, while SSP5-8.5 projected a near-complete loss of suitable habitats by 2090s. The ensemble model demonstrated robust performance, providing reliable predictions across all scenarios. This study highlights the substantial impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Abies koreana and underscores the importance of understanding these changes to preserve vulnerable alpine ecosystems.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 "RS-2022-KE002369 (기후변화 적응을 위한 의사결정형 통합 영향평가 플랫폼 기반 구축 및 활용기술개발)과 EcoBank 유지관리 및 활용연구(NIE-고유연구-2024-01)"의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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