한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제57권1호
  • /
  • Pages.9-19
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  • 2024
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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담수호 수질관리를 위한 측정자료의 통계적 분석방법 연구

A study of statistical analysis method of monitoring data for freshwater lake water quality management

  • 제갈선동 ((주)하이써그 기업부설연구소) ;
  • 김진 ((주)하이써그 기업부설연구소)
  • Chegal, Sundong (Company-affiliated research institute, Hycerg) ;
  • Kim, Jin (Company-affiliated research institute, Hycerg)
  • 투고 : 2023.10.16
  • 심사 : 2023.12.19
  • 발행 : 2024.01.31
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초록

본 연구는 공개된 수질측정 자료를 이용하여 담수호의 수질변화추이를 분석하고 수질항목의 이상여부의 판단기준을 마련하며, 자료로부터 부영양화의 지표인 Chlorophyll-a를 예측할 수 있는 회귀모형을 구성하여 담수호 관리에 이용할 수 있는 방안을 검토하고자 하였다. 이에 따라 서해안 담수호 3개소를 선정하여 약 20년간의 수질항목자료를 회귀분석 방법으로 분석하고, 각 수질항목의 연중 주기적인 변화를 나타내는 회귀식과 신뢰도 95%에서의 표준편차를 산정함으로서 이상 여부의 판단방법을 제시하였다. 또한 불규칙한 관측일로부터 Chlorophyll-a의 시간적 변화율을 산정하고, 다른 수질항목간의 상관관계 분석 및 회귀모형을 구성하여 분석함으로서 수질측정 자료만을 이용하여 Chlorophyll-a의 변화를 예상할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다. 본 연구결과는 통계학적 모형에 의한 근사적인 수질예측방법으로서 향후 수질측정 자료의 양적·질적 개선이 이루어진다면 담수호 수질관리에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

As using public monitoring data, analysing a trends of water quality change, establishing a criteria to determine abnormal status and constructing a regression model that can predict Chlorophyll-a, an indicator of eutrophication, was studied. Accordingly, the three freshwater lakes were selected, approximately 20 years of water quality monitoring data were analyzed for periodic changes in water quality each year using regression analysis, and a method for determining abnormalities was presented by the standard deviation at confidence level 95%. By calculating the temporal change rate of Chlorophyll-a from irregular observed data, analyzing correlations between the rate and other water quality items, and constructing regression models, a method to predict changes in Chlorophyll-a was presented. The results of this study are expected to contribute to freshwater lake water quality management as an approximate water quality prediction method using the statistical model.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해대응기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다(320049-5).

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