Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles (한국의류학회지)

The Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles (한국의류학회)
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Are Business Cycles in the Fashion Industry Affected by the News? -An ARIMAX Time Series Correlation Analysis between the KOSPI Index for Textile & Wearing Apparel and Media Agendas-

패션산업의 경기변동은 뉴스의 영향을 받는가? -섬유의복 KOSPI와 미디어 의제의 ARIMAX 시계열 상관관계 분석-

  • Hyojung Kim (Dept. of Fashion Industry, Ewha Womans University) ;
  • Minjung Park (Dept. of Fashion Industry, Ewha Womans University)
  • 김효정 (이화여자대학교 의류산업학과) ;
  • 박민정 (이화여자대학교 의류산업학과)
  • Received : 2023.03.17
  • Accepted : 2023.08.22
  • Published : 2023.10.31
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Abstract

The growth of digital news media and the stock price index has resulted in economic fluctuations in the fashion industry. This study examines the impact of fashion industry news and macroeconomic changes on the Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI over the past five years. An auto-regressive integrated moving average exogenous time series model was conducted using the fashion industry stock market index, the news topic index, and macro-economic indicators. The results indicated the topics of "Cosmetic business expansion" and "Digital innovation" impacted the Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI after one week, and the topics of "Pop-up store," "Entry into the Chinese fashion market," and "Fashion week and trade show" affected it after two weeks. Moreover, the topics of "Cosmetic business expansion" and "Entry into the Chinese fashion market" were statistically significant in the macroeconomic environment. Regarding the effect relation of Textile & Wearing Apparel KOSPI, "Cosmetic business expansion," "Entry into the Chinese fashion market," and consumer price fluctuation showed negative effects, while the private consumption change rate, producer price fluctuation, and unemployment change rate had positive effects. This study analyzes the impact of media framing on fashion industry business cycles and provides practical insights into managing stock market risk for fashion companies.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문 또는 저서는 2021년 대한민국 교육부와 한국연구재단의 일반공동연구지원사업의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(NRF-2021S1A5A2A03071538).

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