Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회논문집)

Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회)
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Development of Fragility Curves for Slope Stability of Levee under Rapid Drawdown

수위급강하에 대한 제방 사면의 취약도 곡선 작성

  • Cho, Sung-Eun (School of Civil and Environmental Engrg. & Construction Engrg. Research Institute, Hankyong National Univ.)
  • 조성은 (한경국립대학교 건설환경공학부 )
  • Received : 2023.08.18
  • Accepted : 2023.09.15
  • Published : 2023.10.31
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Abstract

To effectively manage flood risk, it is crucial to assess the stability of flood defense structures like levees under extreme flood conditions. This study focuses on the time-dependent probabilistic assessment of embankment slope stability when subjected to rapid water level drops. We integrate seepage analysis results from finite element analysis with slope stability analysis and employ Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the time-dependent behavior of the slope during rapid drawdown. The resulting probability of failure is used to develop fragility curves for the levee slope. Notably, the probability of slope failure remains low up to a specific water level, sharply increasing beyond that threshold. Furthermore, the fragility curves are strongly influenced by the rate of drawdown, which is determined through hydraulic analysis based on flood scenarios. Climate change has a significant impact on the stability of the water-side slope of the embankment due to water level fluctuations.

극한홍수에 대응하기 위한 홍수 위험도 관리의 필수 요소인 홍수 위험도 평가를 위해서는 댐 및 하천제방과 같은 홍수방어시설에 대하여 여러 파괴 메커니즘을 고려한 신뢰도 해석을 수행해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 수위급강하에 의한 제체 사면의 시간에 따른 확률론적 안정성 평가에 대하여 연구하였다. 유한요소 해석에 의한 침투해석 결과를 사면안정 해석에 연동하여 Monte Carlo Simulation을 수행함으로써 수위급강하에 따른 제체의 시간의존적 거동을 연구하고 파괴확률을 계산하여 제방의 취약도 곡선을 작성하였다. 수위급강하에 의한 사면의 파괴확률은 특정 수위까지는 매우 작은 값을 유지하지만, 그 이상에서는 수위가 증가함에 따라 급격하게 증가하는 현상을 보였다. 또한 취약도 곡선은 수위 하강 속도에 크게 영향을 받았다. 수위 저하 속도는 수문 시나리오에 의한 수위의 변동해석을 통하여 결정되므로 수위급강하에 따른 제방 제외지 사면의 안정성은 기후변화에 따라 크게 영향을 받을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 성과는 정부(과학기술정보통신부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(NRF-2022R1F1A1062669).

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