Journal of applied mathematics & informatics

The Korean Society for Computational and Applied Mathematics (한국전산응용수학회)
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AN SEIR ENDEMIC MODEL FOR MONKEYPOX SPREAD IN UNITED STATES

  • S. SHALINI PRIYA (Department of Mathematics, SRM Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • K. GANESAN (Department of Mathematics, SRM Institute of Science and Technology)
  • Received : 2022.10.10
  • Accepted : 2023.05.21
  • Published : 2023.09.30
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Abstract

In this paper, we construct a monkeypox model which is similar to smallpox infection. It is caused by a monkeypox virus which is related to Poxviridae family. It will occur mostly in West African communities and in remote Central. We develop a system of differential equations for an SEIR (Suspected, Exposed, Infected and Recovered) model and analyze the outbreak of monkeypox disease and its effect on United States(US) population. We establish theorems on asymptotical stability conditions for endemic equilibrium and disease-free equilibrium. The basic reproduction number R0 has been determined using next generation matrix. We expect that this study will be effective at controlling monkeypox spread in United States. Our goal is to see whether monkeypox can be controlled and destroyed by smallpox vaccination. We find that monkeypox is controllable and can be fully destroyed in disease free state by vaccination. However, in the endemic state, monkeypox cannot be destroyed by vaccination alone.

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