자원ㆍ환경경제연구 (Environmental and Resource Economics Review)

한국자원경제학회 (Korean Resource Economics Association)
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수소차를 포함한 연료유형에 따른 자동차 수요 분석

Analysis of Vehicle Demand by Fuel Types including Hydrogen Vehicles

  • 박유현 (선문대학교 글로벌지속가능발전경제연구소) ;
  • 김지영 (선문대학교 글로벌경제학과) ;
  • 이윤 (선문대학교 글로벌경제학과)
  • Yuhyeon Bak (Global Sustainable Development Economic Institute, Sunmoon University) ;
  • Jee Young Kim (Department of Global Economics, Sunmoon University) ;
  • Yoon Lee (Department of Global Economics, Sunmoon University)
  • 투고 : 2023.09.11
  • 심사 : 2023.09.19
  • 발행 : 2023.09.30
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초록

본 논문은 서베이 데이터를 이용하여 한국의 연료유형에 따른 자동차의 잠재적 수요를 분석한다. 종속변수는 휘발유, 경유, 하이브리드, 전기, 수소를 포함한 향후 희망 자동차 연료유형이며, 주요 설명변수는 응답자의 인구학적 특성과 희망 자동차 연료 유형 선택 시 고려사항, 주성분분석으로 추출한 환경에 대한 인식이다. 다항로지스틱모델을 이용한 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 연비와 운행편의를 고려하는 응답자들의 하이브리드차에 대한 수요는 높아지는 반면에 전기차와 수소차에 대한 수요는 낮아진다. 환경에 대한 부정적인 인식이 있는 응답자들의 휘발유차와 경유차에 대한 수요는 높아지는 반면 전기차에 대한 수요가 낮아진다. 환경에 대한 우려를 표하는 응답자들의 하이브리드차에 대한 수요는 증가하는 반면에 전기차에 대한 수요는 감소한다. 이와 대조적으로, 환경 친화적인 응답자들의 경유차에 대한 수요는 감소한다.

This study analyzes the potential demand for automobiles based on fuel type using survey data in Korea. The dependent variable of the model is the future desired fuel type, including gasoline, diesel, hybrid, electricity, and hydrogen. The main explanatory variables are the respondent demographic characteristics, key reasons for choosing vehicle fuel type and environmental awareness extracted via principal component analysis (PCA). Using a multinomial logit (MNL) model, we find that respondents who consider fuel economy and infrastructure increase the demand for a hybrid car but decrease the demand for electric and hydrogen vehicles. The denial-types increase the demand for gasoline (petrol) and diesel (light oil), and decrease the demand for electric vehicles. The anxiety-types increase the demand of hybrid vehicles, and decrease the demand for electric vehicles. In contrast, in the case of pro-types, the demand for diesel (light oil) hydrogen vehicles decreased.

키워드

과제정보

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2022S1A5C2A03093594). We are grateful to Hyun-Ju Kim and Yoon-Kyung Choi for helpful comments.

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