Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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Strengthened Madden-Julian Oscillation Variability improved the 2020 Summer Rainfall Prediction in East Asia

  • Jieun Wie (Division of Science Education/Institute of Fusion Science) ;
  • Semin Yun (Division of Science Education/Institute of Fusion Science) ;
  • Jinhee Kang (Division of Science Education/Institute of Fusion Science) ;
  • Sang-Min Lee (Climate Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Johan Lee (Climate Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Baek-Jo Kim (Climate Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Byung-Kwon Moon (Division of Science Education/Institute of Fusion Science)
  • Received : 2023.04.16
  • Accepted : 2023.06.16
  • Published : 2023.06.30
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Abstract

The prolonged and heavy East Asian summer precipitation in 2020 may have been caused by an enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which requires evaluation using forecast models. We examined the performance of GloSea6, an operational forecast model, in predicting the East Asian summer precipitation during July 2020, and investigated the role of MJO in the extreme rainfall event. Two experiments, CON and EXP, were conducted using different convection schemes, 6A and 5A, respectively to simulate various aspects of MJO. The EXP runs yielded stronger forecasts of East Asian precipitation for July 2020 than the CON runs, probably due to the prominent MJO realization in the former experiment. The stronger MJO created stronger moist southerly winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high, which led to increased precipitation. The strengthening of the MJO was found to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian summer precipitation. However, it is important to note that this study does not discuss the impact of changes in the convection scheme on the modulation of MJO. Further research is needed to understand other factors that could strengthen the MJO and improve the forecast.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2020-01212 and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Government of Korea (MSIT) (No. 2022R1A2C1008858).

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