DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Characteristics of Crashes with Early and Late Elderly Drivers by Injury Severity

부상 심각도에 의한 초기 및 후기 고령 운전자 사고 특성 분석

  • Received : 2022.12.23
  • Accepted : 2022.12.27
  • Published : 2023.08.01

Abstract

The number and age of elderly drivers are continuously increasing according to the extension of the human lifespan. Therefore, in transportation, efforts are being made to differentiate and manage elderly drivers by age group. This study aims to identify the factors affecting the crash severity of early and late elderly drivers, compared to middle-aged drivers, and to identify the characteristics between these groups. Crash data that occurred on nationwide roads for the past 5 years (2017-2021) was applied. Unlike previous studies, this study only targeted drivers in their 40s and older, when presbyopia begins: middle-aged driver (40-64), early elderly driver (65-74), and late elderly driver (75+). As a result of logistic regression analysis, a total of 18 variables were found to affect serious injuries including fatalities in early and late elderly drivers. Most of these variables appeared to lead to severity more sensitively in the late elderly group. The results of this study are expected to be useful as basic information for establishing traffic safety policies for elderly drivers in the future.

인구의 수명 연장에 따라 고령 운전자 수와 연령대는 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 따라서 교통에서 고령 운전자의 연령대별 차별화된 관리를 위한 노력이 필요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 비고령 운전자 대비 초기 및 후기 고령 운전자의 부상 심각도에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 파악하여, 이들 그룹간 특성을 분석하는 것이다. 과거 5년간(2017-2021) 전국 도로에서 발생된 교통사고 자료를 적용하였으며, 기존 연구와 달리, 본 연구에서는 노안이 시작되는 40대 이후 운전자만을 대상으로 하였으며, 중년 운전자(40-64), 초기 고령 운전자(65-74), 후기 고령 운전자(75+)로 구분하여 분석을 진행하였다. 로지스틱 회귀 분석 결과, 초기 및 후기 고령 운전자의 중상 및 사망사고에 영향을 미치는 변수는 총 18개로 나타났으며, 이들 변수는 대부분 후기 고령 운전자 그룹에서 보다 민감하게 심각도를 형성하는 것으로 나타났다. 연구의 결과는 향후 고령 운전자 교통안전 정책수립을 위한 기반정보로 유용하게 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2022년도 경찰청의 재원으로 지원받아 수행된 연구결과임 [과제명: 조건부 운전면허제도 개선을 위한 운전능력 평가시스템/연구개발과제번호: PR09-02-000-22].

References

  1. Adanu, E. K., Lidbe, A., Tedla, E. and Jones, S. (2021). "Factors associated with driver injury severity of lane changing crashes involving younger and older drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 149, 105867, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105867.
  2. Amiri, A. M., Sadri, A., Nadimi, N. and Shams, M. (2020). "A comparison between Artificial Neural Network and Hybrid Intelligent Genetic Algorithm in predicting the severity of fixed object crashes among elderly drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevetion, Elsevier, Vol. 138, 105468, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105468.
  3. Boufous, S., Finch, C., Hayen, A. and Williamson, A. (2008). "The impact of environmental, vehicle and driver characteristics on injury severity in older drivers hospitalized as a result of a traffic crash." Journal of Safety Research, Elsevier, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 65-72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2007.10.010.
  4. Chandraratna, S. and Stamatiadis, N. (2003). "Problem driving maneuvers of elderly drivers." Journal of the Transportation Research Record, TRR, Vol. 1843, No. 1, pp. 89-95, https://doi.org/10.3141/1843-11.
  5. Christopher, G. (2013). "The licensing and safety of older drivers in britain." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 50, pp. 732-741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.027.
  6. Cicchino, J. B. and McCartt, A. T. (2015). "Critical older driver errors in a national sample of serious U.S. crashes." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 80, pp. 211-219, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.04.015.
  7. Clarke, D. D., Ward, P., Bartle, C. and Truman, W. (2010). "Older drivers' road traffic crashes in the UK." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 1018-1024, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2009.12.005.
  8. Cooper, P. J. (1990). "Differences in accident characteristics among elderly drivers and between elderly and middle-aged drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp. 499-508, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(90)90044-L.
  9. Etehad, H., Yousefzadeh-Chabok, S., Davoudi-Kiakalaye, A., Moghadam, D. A., Hemati, H. and Mohtasham-Amiri, Z. (2015). "Impact of road traffic accidents on the elderly." Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Elsevier, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 489-493, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2015.08.008.
  10. Hakamies-Blomqvist, L. E. (1993). "Fatal accidents of older drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 19-27, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(93)90093-C.
  11. Hosmer Jr, D. W., Lemeshow, S. and Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied logistic regression, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118548387.
  12. Jang, T. Y. (2014). "Traffic accident damage severity of old age drivers by multilevel analysis model." KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research, KSCE, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 561-571, https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.2.0561 (in Korean).
  13. Kang, C., Chung, Y. and Chang, Y. J. (2019). "Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes on korean freeway systems using an ordered probitmodel." KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research, KSCE, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 391-398, https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2019.39.3.0391 (in Korean).
  14. Khattak, A. J., Pawlovich, M. D., Souleyrette, R. R. and Hallmark, S. L. (2002). "Factors related to more severe older driver traffic crash injuries." Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 128, No. 3, pp. 243-249, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE) 0733-947X(2002)128:3(243).
  15. Koppel, S., Bohensky, M., Langford, J. and Taranto, D. (2011). "Older drivers, crashes and injuries." Traffic Injury Prevention, Taylor & Francis, Vol. 12, No. 5, pp. 459-467, https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2011.580802.
  16. Korean Statistical Information Service(KOSIS) (2022). Korean Statistical Information Service, Available at: https://kosis.kr/ (Accessed: December 2, 2022) (in Korean).
  17. Langford, J. and Koppel, S. (2006). "Epidemiology of older driver crashes-identifying older driver risk factors 11 and exposure patterns." Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Elsevier, Vol. 9, No. 5, pp. 309-321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2006.03.005.
  18. Lee, J. and Gim, T.-H. T. (2019). "Examining the characteristics of traffic accidents involving elderly drivers in seoul, South Korea." The Korea Spatial Planning Review, KRIHS, Vol. 102, pp. 19-34, https://doi.org/10.15793/kspr.2019.102..002 (in Korean).
  19. Lee, S. H., Jeung, W. D. and Woo, Y. H. (2012). "Comparative analysis of elderly's and non-elderly's human traffic accident severity." The Journal of the Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems, KITS, Vol. 11, No. 6, pp. 133-144 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.12815/kits.2012.11.6.133
  20. Li, G., Braver, E. R. and Chen, L.-H. (2003). "Fragility versus excessive crash involvement as determinants of high death rates per vehicle-mile of travel among older drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 227-235, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00107-5.
  21. Massie, D. L., Campbell, K. L. and Williams, A. F. (1995). "Traffic accident involvement rates by driver age and gender." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 73-87, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(94)00050-V.
  22. Mayo Clinic (2022). Presbyopia, Available at: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/presbyopia/symptoms-causes/syc-20363328 (Accessed: December 2, 2022).
  23. Mcgwin G. Jr. and Brown, D. B. (1999). "Characteristics of traffic crashes among young, middle-aged, and older drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 181-198, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(98)00061-X.
  24. Oh, J.-S., Lee, E.-Y., Ryu, J.-B. and Lee, W.-Y. (2015). "An analysis for main vulnerable situations and human errors of elderly drivers' traffic accidents." Journal of Transport Research, KOTI, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 57-75, https://doi.org/10.34143/jtr.2015.22.4.57 (in Korean).
  25. Park, J.-T., Kim, Y.-S. and Lee, S.-B. (2009). "The analysis of older driver's traffic accident characteristic at express-way using logit model." International Journal of Highway Engineering, KSRE, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 1-7 (in Korean).
  26. Park, J., Ko, J. and Lee, S. (2010). "Developing older driver's accident injury severity model for accident type: An application of ordered probit model." Journal of Transport Research, KOTI, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 85-94, https://doi.org/10.34143/jtr.2010.17.4.85 (in Korean).
  27. Preusser, D. F., Williams, A. F., Ferguson, S. A., Ulmer, R. G. and Weinstein, H. B. (1998). "Fatal crash risk for older drivers at intersections." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 151-159, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(97)00090-0.
  28. Washington, S., Karlaftis, M., Mannering, F. and Anastasopoulos, P. (2020). Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 3rd edition.
  29. Zhang, J., Fraser, S., Lindsay, J., Clarke, K. and Mao, Y. (1998). "Age-specific patterns of factors related to fatal motor vehicle traffic crashes: Focus on young and elderly drivers." Public health, Elsevier, Vol. 112, No. 5, pp. 289-295, https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.ph.1900485.
  30. Zhang, J., Lindsay, J., Clarke, K., Robbins, G. and Mao, Y. (2000). "Factors affecting the severity of motor vehicle traffic crashes involving elderly drivers in ontario." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Elsevier, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 117-125, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00039-1.