산업경영시스템학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering)

  • 제46권2호
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  • Pages.152-159
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  • 2023
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  • 2005-0461(pISSN)
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  • 2287-7975(eISSN)
한국산업경영시스템학회 (Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering)
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지도학습 기반 수출물량 및 수출금액 예측 모델 개발

Development of Export Volume and Export Amount Prediction Models Based on Supervised Learning

  • Dong-Gil Na (Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute) ;
  • Yeong-Woong Yu (Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute)
  • 투고 : 2023.05.31
  • 심사 : 2023.06.12
  • 발행 : 2023.06.30
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초록

Due to COVID-19, changes in consumption trends are taking place in the distribution sector, such as an increase in non-face-to-face consumption and a rapid growth in the online shopping market. However, it is difficult for small and medium-sized export sellers to obtain forecast information on the export market by country, compared to large distributors who can easily build a global sales network. This study is about the prediction of export amount and export volume by country and item for market information analysis of small and medium export sellers. A prediction model was developed using Lasso, XGBoost, and MLP models based on supervised learning and deep learning, and export trends for clothing, cosmetics, and household electronic devices were predicted for Korea's major export countries, the United States, China, and Vietnam. As a result of the prediction, the performance of MAE and RMSE for the Lasso model was excellent, and based on the development results, a market analysis system for small and medium sellers was developed.

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과제정보

This work was supported by Knowledge service industry technology development project funded by the Ministry of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy(MOTIE, Korea). [Project Name: Development of overseas market information analysis system for small and medium export sellers / Project Number: 20014772]

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