Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care

Korean Society for Hospice and Palliative Care (한국호스피스완화의료학회)
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Prediction of Survival in Patients with Advanced Cancer: A Narrative Review and Future Research Priorities

  • Yusuke, Hiratsuka (Department of Palliative Medicine, Takeda General Hospital) ;
  • Jun, Hamano (Department of Palliative and Supportive Care, Institute of Medicine, University of Tsukuba) ;
  • Masanori, Mori (Department of Palliative and Supportive Care, Seirei Mikatahara General Hospital) ;
  • Isseki, Maeda (Department of Palliative Care, Senri Chuo Hospital) ;
  • Tatsuya, Morita (Department of Palliative and Supportive Care, Seirei Mikatahara General Hospital) ;
  • Sang-Yeon, Suh (Department of Family Medicine, Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital)
  • Published : 2023.03.01
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Abstract

This paper aimed to summarize the current situation of prognostication for patients with an expected survival of weeks or months, and to clarify future research priorities. Prognostic information is essential for patients, their families, and medical professionals to make end-of-life decisions. The clinician's prediction of survival is often used, but this may be inaccurate and optimistic. Many prognostic tools, such as the Palliative Performance Scale, Palliative Prognostic Index, Palliative Prognostic Score, and Prognosis in Palliative Care Study, have been developed and validated to reduce the inaccuracy of the clinician's prediction of survival. To date, there is no consensus on the most appropriate method of comparing tools that use different formats to predict survival. Therefore, the feasibility of using prognostic scales in clinical practice and the information wanted by the end users can determine the appropriate prognostic tool to use. We propose four major themes for further prognostication research: (1) functional prognosis, (2) outcomes of prognostic communication, (3) artificial intelligence, and (4) education for clinicians.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

We thank Audrey Holmes, MA, from Edanz (https://jp.edanz.com/ac) for editing a draft of this manuscript.

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