한국항해항만학회지 (Journal of Navigation and Port Research)

  • 제47권6호
  • /
  • Pages.324-330
  • /
  • 2023
  • /
  • 1598-5725(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2093-8470(eISSN)
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 항로표지사고 주요 요인 분석

Analysis of Main Factors in aids to Navigation Accidents using a Bayesian Network

  • Sangwon Park (Korea Maritime Institute) ;
  • Youngsoo Park (Division of Navigation Convergence Studies, Korea Maritime and Ocean University) ;
  • Beom-Sik Moon (Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • 투고 : 2023.11.06
  • 심사 : 2023.11.29
  • 발행 : 2023.12.31
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

항로표지는 선박의 위치·방향 및 장애물의 위치 등을 알려주는 항행보조시설로써 중단없는 서비스가 중요하다. 본 연구는 서비스의 중단을 야기하는 항로표지 사고를 분석하고 사고와 관련된 주요 요인을 도출하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 2000년부터 2022년까지 발생한 항로표지 사고자료를 활용했다. 항로표지 사고의 변수를 사고유형, 원인, 지방청, 계절, 항로표지 유형으로 구분했으며, 상관관계 분석을 통해 네트워크를 도출했다. 항로표지 사고 기반으로 도출한 베이지안 네트워크에 사전확률을 부여하고, 항로표지 사고 유형별로 발생 확률을 높이는 요소들을 도출했다. 도출된 결과는 신고되지 않은 항로표지 사고의 원인을 추론할 수 있으며, 항로표지 사고 예방을 위한 기초 자료로도 사용할 수 있다.

Aids to navigation, which provide information about a ship's position, direction, and the location of obstacles, are crucial for uninterrupted maritime services. This study aimed to analyze accidents involving aids to navigation that resulted in service disruptions and identify the key factors associated with these accidents. Aids to navigation accident data from 2000 to 2022 were utilized to achieve this. We categorized accidents by accident type, cause, region, season, and type of navigation aid and established a network through correlation analysis. Bayesian networks based on aids to navigation accidents were assigned prior probabilities, and the factors that increased the probability of accidents for different types of aids to navigation were identified. The findings can be used to infer the causes of unreported aids to navigation accidents and serve as foundational data for the prevention of such accidents.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 2021년 해양수산부 재원으로 해양수산과학기술진흥원의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(해양 디지털 항로표지정보협력시스템 개발(3/5) (20210650).

참고문헌

  1. Choi, G. Y., Kim, S. R., Park, S. W. and Song, C. U.(2023), A Study on Data Clustering of Light Buoy Using DBSCAN(I), Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 47(4), pp. 231-238.
  2. Cramer, Harald(1946), Mathematical Methods of Statistics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, p. 282.
  3. Fenton, N. and Neil, M.(2018), "Risk assessment and decision analysis with Bayesian networks", CRC Press
  4. Haldun A.(2018), User's guide to correlation coefficients, Turkish Journal of Emergency Medicine, Vol. 18(3), pp. 91-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tjem.2018.08.001
  5. Han, J. S., Yu, Y. S., Park, T. K. and Kim, H. Y.(2019), A Study on the Development of the Collision Prevention System for Aids to Navigation by Early Identification of the Tug, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 43(6), pp. 437-443. https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2019.43.6.437
  6. Jeong, T. G. and Gug, S. G.(2013), "Theory of Marine Aids to Navigation", Sejong Publisher, p. 13.
  7. Kim, N. Y., Lee, S. H. and Park, C. S.(2022), Policy Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Measures Using Bayesian Networks: Busan Metropolitan City, Journal of Climate change research, Vol. 13(5), pp. 597-610. https://doi.org/10.15531/KSCCR.2022.13.5.597
  8. Kim, T .G. and Moon, B. S.(2018), Study on Estimating Economic Risk Cost of Aids to Navigation Accident in Busan Port, Korea using Contingent Valuation Method, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 42(6), pp. 478-485. https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2018.42.6.478
  9. Kim, Y., Kim, T. and Oh, S. W.(2023), A Study on S-201 Standards-based Management of Aids to Navigation Information, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 47(4), pp. 220-230.
  10. Korea Ministry of Government Legislation(2021), Instructions for handling work related to notice of aids to navigation.
  11. Korea Ministry of Government Legislation(2023), Aids to navigation ACT.
  12. Lee, M. K., Park, Y. S., Jeong, H. S. and Gug, S. G.(2020), Risk Assessment for Contact Accident of Buoy - Focusing on Busan New Port-, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 44(3), pp. 158-165.
  13. Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries(2022), Annual report of aids to navigation.
  14. Moon, B. S. and Kim, T. G.(2019). Study on Development of Social Cost Estimating Model for Aids to Navigation Accident(II), Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 43(3), pp. 166-171.
  15. Moon, B. S., Kim, T. G., Song, C. U. and Kim, Y. J.(2023), A Study on the Re-establishment of the Accident Classification for Aids to Navigation, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 47(3), pp. 128-133.
  16. Park, I. H., Lee, S. J. and Hwang, S. W.(2010), Design and Test of Communication Networks for Aids to Navigation based on AIS, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 34(5), pp. 337-342. https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2010.34.5.337
  17. X, Zou. and Yue, W. L.(2017), A Bayesian network approach to causation analysis of road accidents using Netica, Journal of Advanced Transportation, pp. 1-18.