IPCC AR6에서 전망한 극한가뭄 전망과 전세계 메가가뭄으로 인한 위협

  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 박상혁 (중부대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김영준 (중부대학교 가뭄연구센터) ;
  • 박서연 (중부대학교 토목공학과 )
  • Published : 2023.12.30

Abstract

Keywords

References

  1. 김윤성, 정민규, 김태웅, 정승명, & 권현한. (2023). 2022 년 남부지역 수문학적 가뭄위험도 평가: 수문학적 이변량 가뭄 지역빈도해석 중심으로. 한국수자원학회 논문집, 56(2), 151-163.
  2. Carrao, H., Naumann, G., & Barbosa, P. (2016). Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 39, 108-124.
  3. Carter, V. A., Shinker, J. J., & Preece, J. (2018). Drought and vegetation change in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains: potential climatic mechanisms associated with megadrought conditions at 4200 cal yr BP. Climate of the Past, 14(8), 1195-1212.
  4. Cook et al. (2020): Cook, B., et al., 2020a: Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth's Future, 8(6), e2019EF001461. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461
  5. Dai, A., Zhao, T., & Chen, J. (2018). Climate change and drought: a precipitation and evaporation perspective. Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 301-312.
  6. Formetta, G., & Feyen, L. (2019). Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Global Environmental Change, 57, 101920.
  7. Hagenlocher, M., et al., 2019: Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environ. Res. Lett., 14(8), 83002.
  8. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. (2004). Living with risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives.
  9. Jurgilevich, A., A. Rasanen, F. Groundstroem and S. Juhola, 2017: A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments. Environ. Res. Lett., 12(1), 13002.
  10. Milly, P. C., & Dunne, K. A. (2016). Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying. Nature Climate Change, 6(10), 946-949.
  11. Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., ... & Zhou, B. (2021). Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2.
  12. Medellin-Azuara, J., Escriva-Bou, A., Rodriguez-Flores, J. M., Cole, S. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Viers, J. H., ... & Bernacchi, L. (2022). Economic Impacts of the 2020-22 Drought on California Agriculture.
  13. Ning, L., Liu, J., Wang, B., Chen, K., Yan, M., Jin, C., & Wang, Q. (2018). Variability and mechanisms of megadroughts over eastern China during the last millennium: A model study. Atmosphere, 10(1), 7.
  14. Ojeda, M. G. V., Gamiz-Fortis, S. R., Romero-Jimenez, E., Rosa-Canovas, J. J., Yeste, P., Castro-Diez, Y., & Esteban-Parra, M. J. (2021). Projected changes in the Iberian Peninsula drought characteristics. Science of The Total Environment, 757, 143702.
  15. Pawley, T. A. (2021). Drier Futures: Water Conservation and Drought Resilience Planning for Museums.
  16. Parmesan, C., Morecroft, M. D., & Trisurat, Y. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Doctoral dissertation, GIEC).
  17. Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Vogt, J. V., ... & Mazzeschi, M. (2019). A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 22, 100593.
  18. Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., ... & Zhou, B. (2021). Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate (Chapter 11).
  19. Trenberth, K., Overpeck, J., and Solomon, S. (2004). "Exploring drought and its implications for the future." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 85, No. 3, p. 27.
  20. Yang, Y., Liu, D. L., Anwar, M. R., O'Leary, G., Macadam, I., & Yang, Y. (2016). Water use efficiency and crop water balance of rainfed wheat in a semi-arid environment: sensitivity of future changes to projected climate changes and soil type. Theoretical and applied climatology, 123, 565-579.