한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제56권12호
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  • Pages.955-967
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  • 2023
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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농촌지역 미래 홍수 위험도 평가를 위한 수문 모델 개발

Developing a hydrological model for evaluating the future flood risks in rural areas

  • Adeyi, Qudus (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Ahmad, Mirza Junaid (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Adelodun, Bashir (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Odey, Golden (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Akinsoji, Adisa Hammed (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Salau, Rahmon Abiodun (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Choi, Kyung Sook (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
  • 투고 : 2023.11.30
  • 심사 : 2023.12.08
  • 발행 : 2023.12.31
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초록

미래 기후변화 현상은 농촌지역의 홍수 위험을 중가 시켜 농업의 지속 가능성과 식량 안보를 위협할 것으로 예견된다. 본 연구에서는 미래기후변화를 파악하기 위해 세 개의 GCM을 선정하여 RCP 및 SSP 시나리오 중 중간 및 극한조건을 각각 적용하여 미래 기후변화를 예측하였다. 충북 청주시 신대지구를 대상으로 미래 홍수 위험도를 평가하기 위한 수문 모델을 개발하였으며, 대상지구에서 발생했던 2021~2022년내 강우사상에 대한 시우량, 유출량 측정자료를 사용하여 수문 모델을 검보정 하였다. RCP와 SSP 시나리오에 의한 미래 기상자료를 활용하여 홍수 위험 정도를 비교 분석한 결과. 미래로 갈수록 극한 강우 발생가능성이 높아지는 경향을 보여, 2051~2100년 기간에 극한강우 발생 가능성이 가장 높게 나타났다. 대상지구에서 발생한 침수심이 700 mm를 초과하는 경우는 2015~2030년 기간에는 13~36%, 2031~2050년 기간에는 54~74%, 2051~2100년 기간에는 71~91%를 각각 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 RCP 시나리오 보다 SSP 시나리오에 적용한 미래 기후변화 조건에서 극한 홍수 발생 가능성이 더 높게 나타나는 것으로 평가되었다.

Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts.

키워드

과제정보

This work was supported by the Korea Institute of Planning and Evaluation for Technology in Food, Agriculture and Forestry (IPET) through the Agricultural Foundation and Disaster Response Technology Development Program, funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)(321071-3).

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