한국항해항만학회지 (Journal of Navigation and Port Research)

  • 제46권5호
  • /
  • Pages.449-457
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  • 2022
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  • 1598-5725(pISSN)
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  • 2093-8470(eISSN)
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
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Effects of Macroeconomic Conditions and External Shocks for Port Business: Forecasting Cargo Throughput of Busan Port Using ARIMA and VEC Models

  • Nam, Hyung-Sik (Department of Logistics, Korea Maritime and Ocean University) ;
  • D'agostini, Enrico (Department of International Logistics, Tongmyong University) ;
  • Kang, Dal-Won (Department of Air Transportation & Logistics, Catholic Kwandong University)
  • 투고 : 2022.10.05
  • 심사 : 2022.10.25
  • 발행 : 2022.10.31
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초록

The Port of Busan is currently ranked as the seventh largest container port worldwide in terms of cargo throughput. However, port competition in the Far-East region is fierce. The growth rate of container throughput handled by the port of Busan has recently slowed down. In this study, we analyzed how economic conditions and multiple external shocks could influence cargo throughput and identified potential implications for port business. The aim of this study was to build a model to accurately forecast port throughput using the ARIMA model, which could incorporate external socio-economic shocks, and the VEC model considering causal variables having long-term effects on transshipment cargo. Findings of this study suggest that there are three main areas affecting container throughput in the port of Busan, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, the increased competition for transshipment cargo of Chinese ports, and the weaker growth rate of the Korean economy. Based on the forecast, in order for the Port of the Port of Busan to continue to grow as a logistics hub in Northeast-Asia, policy intervention is necessary to diversify the demand for transshipment cargo and maximize benefits of planned infrastructural investments.

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참고문헌

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