Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety (해양환경안전학회지)

The Korean Society of Marine Environment and safety (해양환경안전학회)
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A Study on Precise Tide Prediction at the Nakdong River Estuary using Long-term Tidal Observation Data

장기조석관측 자료를 이용한 낙동강 하구 정밀조위 예측 연구

  • Received : 2022.09.02
  • Accepted : 2022.10.28
  • Published : 2022.10.31
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Abstract

Until 2016, before discussions on the restoration of brackish water of the Nakdong River Estuary started in earnest, the downstream water level was predicted using the data of existing tide level observatories (Busan and Gadeokdo) several kilometers away from the estuary. However, it was not easy to carry out the prediction due to the dif erence in tide level and phase. Therefore, this study was conducted to estimate tide prediction more accurately through tidal harmonic analysis using the measured water level affected by the tides in the offshore waters adjacent to the Nakdong River Estuary. As a research method, the storage status of observation data according to the period and abnormal data were checked at 10-minute intervals in the offshore sea area near the Nakdong River Estuary bank, and the observed and predicted tides were measured using TASK2000 (Tidal Analysis Software Kit) Package, a tidal harmonic analysis program. Regression analysis based on one-to-one comparison showed that the correlation between the two components was high correlation coef icient 0.9334. In predicting the tides for the current year, if possible, more accurate data can be obtained by harmonically analyzing one-year tide observation data from the previous year and performing tide prediction using the obtained harmonic constant. Based on this method, the predicted tide for 2022 was generated and it is being used in the calculation of seawater inflow for the restoration of brackish water of the Nakdong River Estuary.

낙동강 하구 기수생태 복원이 본격으로 논의가 진행 전인 2016년까지는 하류 수위의 예측을 위해 하구에서 수km 떨어진 기존 조위관측소(부산 및 가덕도)의 측정 자료를 활용하여 분석을 수행하였지만, 조위와 위상 차이로 인해 예측이 용이하지 않았다. 따라서, 낙동강 하굿둑 인접 외해역에서 조석 영향을 받는 수위관측치를 이용하여 조석조화분해를 통한 정밀한 조위 예측 산정의 필요성이 대두되어 본 연구를 수행하였다. 연구의 방법으로는 낙동강하굿둑 인근 외해역에서 10분 간격으로 기간별 관측자료의 저장상태 및 이상자료 유무를 확인하고, 조석조화분해 프로그램인 TASK2000(Tidal Analysis Software Kit) Package를 이용하여 관측조위와 예측조위를 1대 1 비교하여 회귀상관분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과, 관측조위와 예측조위간의 상관도는 0.9334로 높게 나타났으며, 당해 연도의 조위예측 분석시 직전연도의 1년 조석관측 자료를 조화분해하여 산출된 조화상수를 이용하여 조위예측을 실시하면 보다 정확한 결과를 산출할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 이를 바탕으로 2022년 예측조위를 생성하여 낙동강 하구 기수생태 복원의 해수유입량의 산정에 활용 중이다.

Keywords

References

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