Abstract
This article examines features and implications of 'new northeast phenomenon' in China's new normal period. Different from previous studies with economy as a single factor, this paper regards the northeast phenomenon as not an single economic phenomenon but a compound socio economic phenomenon that economic, demographic and financial issues are linked together. This study finds that since 2014 decline of economic growth, deepening of population decline and brain drain, accelerated aging, the increase in fiscal deficit and a surge in social security spending, these phenomena occur simultaneously and influence each other, forming a vicious cycle in northeast China, and also finds that the difficulty of 'new northeast phenomenon' lies in this compound features. If so, what are the implications of 'new northeast phenomenon's' these features for China as a whole? This study proposes two points. First, based on the recent changes in some relevant situations in China, northeast region can be regarded as a microcosm of China, northeast phenomenon is likely to spread to other regions of China in the near future, it will become a common phenomenon all over China. Second, the emergence of the 'new northeast phenomenon' in the new normal period requires deep reflection and rethinking about the fundamental effect of the regional development strategies, such as 'The Development of the Western Region', 'The Rise of Central China', 'The revitalization of the Northeast', implemented since the reform and development. The 'new northeast phenomenon' has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved by the Chinese government, if the solution is successful, it can be a very useful direction for reconstructing regional development strategies in contemporary China.
本文关注到与过去不同的新常态下 '新东北现象' 的复合特征,着重阐述最近 '新东北现象' 里的主要三个现象-经济现象, 人口现象, 财政现象。2014年以来东北地区经济增速减缓虽成大问题,同其间东北有关人口状况与财政支出结构变动也很突出。总之, 2014年以后在东北地区, 经济增长衰退, 人口减少与人才流失加剧, 老龄化提速, 财政收支缺口增加与社会保障支出激增, 这些现象都同时发生, 互相影响着产生恶性循环, 新常态下的 '新东北现象' 之难点就在这复合实质。那么, 新常态下的 '新东北现象' 之如此复合特征与难点给全中国何含意? 本文提出两点。第一, 基于近来中国一些有关状况变化趋势来看, 东北可以被视为中国的一个缩影, 新常态下的 '新东北现象' 不限于东北地区, 不久将来很可能扩散到中国其他区域, 会成为全中国现象。第二, 新常态下的 '新东北现象' 出现, 对于改革开发以来实行的西部大开发战略, 中部崛起战略, 东北振兴战略等一系列区域大开发战略的根本性效果, 要求深刻的反思且重新构想。这些区域发展战略, 虽有所成就, 中西部地区, 尤其是西部, 还仍然相对很落后, 中国区域差距一向没有缩小。振兴东北战略实行已有了20来年, 新常态下的 '新东北现象' 出现也显示长期以来困扰东北经济的深层次问题始终没有得到解决。近来习进平格外强调 '共同富裕', '新东北现象' 也成为本届中央政府最急切解决的问题之一, 如果成功了, 既能为重新构思和调整区域发展战略提出有效方向, 又能为对应未来中国经济社会变动成为一个重要标志。