디지털융복합연구 (Journal of Digital Convergence)

  • 제20권5호
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  • Pages.39-46
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  • 2022
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  • 2713-6434(pISSN)
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  • 2713-6442(eISSN)
한국디지털정책학회 (The Society of Digital Policy and Management)
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앙상블 학습기법을 활용한 보행자 교통사고 심각도 분류: 대전시 사례를 중심으로

Classifying the severity of pedestrian accidents using ensemble machine learning algorithms: A case study of Daejeon City

  • 강흥식 (충남대학교 메카트로닉스공학과) ;
  • 노명규 (충남대학교 메카트로닉스공학과)
  • Kang, Heungsik (Department of Mechatronics Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Noh, Myounggyu (Department of Mechatronics Engineering, Chungnam National University)
  • 투고 : 2022.03.25
  • 심사 : 2022.05.20
  • 발행 : 2022.05.28
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초록

교통사고와 사회·경제적 손실 간의 연계성이 확인됨에 따라 사고 데이터에 기반을 둔 안전 정책 마련 및 중상·사망 등 그 심각도가 높은 교통사고의 절감 방안의 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 인구 대비 교통사고 사망자 비율이 높은 대전시를 대상지역으로 설정하고 보행자 교통사고 데이터를 수집한 후, 기계학습을 통해 최적알고리즘과 심각도 분류의 주요 인자를 도출하였다. 연구의 결과에 따르면, 적용한 9개 알고리즘 중 앙상블 기반의 학습 기법인 AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting)와 RF (Random Forest)가 최적의 성능을 보여주었다. 이를 기반으로 도출된 대전시 보행자 교통사고 심각도의 주요 인자는 보행자의 연령이 70대 및 20대이거나 사고유형이 횡단사고에 의한 경우로 나타남에 따라 대전시 보행자 사고 저감 대책을 위한 고려요인으로 제안하였다.

As the link between traffic accidents and social and economic losses has been confirmed, there is a growing interest in developing safety policies based on crash data and a need for countermeasures to reduce severe crash outcomes such as severe injuries and fatalities. In this study, we select Daejeon city where the relative proportion of fatal crashes is high, as a case study region and focus on the severity of pedestrian crashes. After a series of data manipulation process, we run machine learning algorithms for the optimal model selection and variable identification. Of nine algorithms applied, AdaBoost and Random Forest (ensemble based ones) outperform others in terms of performance metrics. Based on the results, we identify major influential factors (i.e., the age of pedestrian as 70s or 20s, pedestrian crossing) on pedestrian crashes in Daejeon, and suggest them as measures for reducing severe outcomes.

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