Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

  • 제55권2호
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  • Pages.164-172
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  • 2022
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  • 1975-8375(pISSN)
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  • 2233-4521(eISSN)
대한예방의학회 (The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine)
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Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data

  • Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi (Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Mansori, Kamyar (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Kangavari, Hajar Nazari (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Shojaei, Ahmad (Legal Medicine Research Center, Iranian Legal Medicine Organization) ;
  • Arsang-Jang, Shahram (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences)
  • 투고 : 2021.07.08
  • 심사 : 2021.11.16
  • 발행 : 2022.03.31
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초록

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016. Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used. Results: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran's provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran's provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years. Conclusions: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran's northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.

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