Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Analysis of public library book loan demand according to weather conditions using machine learning

머신러닝을 활용한 기상조건에 따른 공공도서관 도서대출 수요분석

  • Oh, Min-Ki (Dept. of Library and Information Science, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kim, Keun-Wook (Big Data Center, Daegu Digital Industry Promotion Agency) ;
  • Shin, Se-Young (Dept. of Computer Science, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Lee, Jin-Myeong (Dept. of Physics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Jang, Won-Jun (Big Data Center, Daegu Digital Industry Promotion Agency)
  • 오민기 (경북대학교 문헌정보학과) ;
  • 김건욱 (대구디지털산업진흥원 빅데이터활용센터) ;
  • 신세영 (경북대학교 컴퓨터학과) ;
  • 이진명 (경북대학교 물리학과) ;
  • 장원준 (대구디지털산업진흥원)
  • Received : 2021.12.28
  • Accepted : 2022.03.20
  • Published : 2022.03.28
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Abstract

Although domestic public libraries achieved quantitative growth based on the 1st and 2nd comprehensive library development plans, there were some qualitative shortcomings, and various studies have been conducted to improve them. Most of the preceding studies have limitations in that they are limited to social and economic factors and statistical analysis. Therefore, in this study, by applying the spatiotemporal concept to quantitatively calculate the decrease in public library loan demand due to rainfall and heatwave, by clustering areas with high demand for book loan due to weather changes and areas where it is not, factors inside and outside public libraries and After the combination, changes in public library loan demand according to weather changes were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, there was a difference in the decrease due to the weather for each public library, and it was found that there were some differences depending on the characteristics and spatial location of the public library. Also, when the temperature was over 35℃, the decrease in book loan demand increased significantly. As internal factors, the number of seats, the number of books, and area were derived. As external factors, the public library access ramp, cafe, reading room, floating population in their teens, and floating population of women in their 30s/40s were analyzed as important variables. The results of this analysis are judged to contribute to the establishment of policies to promote the use of public libraries in consideration of the weather in a specific season, and also suggested limitations of the study.

국내 공공도서관은 1, 2차 도서관 발전 종합계획을 토대로 양적 성장을 이루었으나, 질적으로는 다소 부족한 점이 있어 이를 개선하기 위한 다양한 연구가 수행되었다. 대다수 선행연구에서는 사회·경제적 요인과 통계분석에 한정되어 수행된 한계점이 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 시공간적 개념을 적용하여 강우와 폭염으로 인한 공공도서관 대출 수요 감소를 정량적으로 산출하고, 기상 변화로 도서 대출 수요 감소가 높은 지역과 그렇지 않은 지역을 군집화하여 공공도서관 내·외부 요인들과 결합한 후 기상변화에 따른 공공도서관 대출 수요 변화를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 공공도서관별 기상으로 인한 감소 차이가 존재하였으며, 공공도서관의 특성과 공간적 위치에 따라 일부 다르게 나타났다. 또한, 기온이 35℃ 이상인 폭염일 경우 도서 대출 수요 감소 폭이 많이 증가하였으며, 랜덤포레스트 모형으로 분석한 결과 유의미한 요인이 도출되었다. 내적 요인으로는 좌석 수, 장서 수, 면적이 도출되었으며, 외적 요인으로는 공공도서관 접근 경사로, 카페, 독서실, 10대 유동인구, 30/40대 여성 유동인구가 중요한 변수로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석 결과는 특정 시즌 기상을 고려한 공공도서관 이용 활성화 정책 수립에 이바지할 것으로 판단되며, 연구의 한계점도 제시하였다.

Keywords

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