New & Renewable Energy (신재생에너지)

Korean Society for New and Renewable Energy (한국신·재생에너지학회)
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Accurate Wind Speed Prediction Using Effective Markov Transition Matrix and Comparison with Other MCP Models

Effective markov transition matrix를 이용한 풍속예측 및 MCP 모델과 비교

  • Kang, Minsang (Wind Energy Research Team, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Son, Eunkuk (Wind Energy Research Team, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Lee, Jinjae (Wind Energy Research Team, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kang, Seungjin (Wind Energy Research Team, Korea Institute of Energy Research)
  • Received : 2022.01.10
  • Accepted : 2022.02.23
  • Published : 2022.03.25
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Abstract

This paper presents an effective Markov transition matrix (EMTM), which will be used to calculate the wind speed at the target site in a wind farm to accurately predict wind energy production. The existing MTS prediction method using a Markov transition matrix (MTM) exhibits a limitation where significant prediction variations are observed owing to random selection errors and its bin width. The proposed method selects the effective states of the MTM and refines its bin width to reduce the error of random selection during a gap filling procedure in MTS. The EMTM reduces the level of variation in the repeated prediction of wind speed by using the coefficient of variations and range of variations. In a case study, MTS exhibited better performance than other MCP models when EMTM was applied to estimate a one-day wind speed, by using mean relative and root mean square errors.

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Acknowledgement

본 논문은 한국수력원자력(주)에서 재원을 부담하여 한국에너지기술연구원에서 수행한 연구결과이며(No. 2019-기술-12), 산업통상자원부의 재원으로 한국에너지기술평가원의 지원을 받아 수행한 연구 결과입니다(풍력발전 제어시스템 국산화 기술개발, 20213030020230).

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