Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety (해양환경안전학회지)

The Korean Society of Marine Environment and safety (해양환경안전학회)
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A Study on the Evaluation of Importance of Factors Affecting the Vessel Value

선박가치 변화요인에 관한 중요도 평가 연구

  • Choi, Jung-Suk (Division of Maritime Transportation, Mokpo National Maritime University) ;
  • Namgung, Ho (Division of Navigation and Information System, Mokpo National Maritime University)
  • 최정석 (목포해양대학교 해상운송학부) ;
  • 남궁호 (목포해양대학교 항해정보시스템학부)
  • Received : 2022.01.13
  • Accepted : 2022.02.25
  • Published : 2022.02.28
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Abstract

The shipping industry is a service industry that operates its business by transporting cargo on ships and receiving freight. Therefore, large-scale capital investment is required for ship operation, and if the value of the ship is uncertain, the risk of shipping management increases. This study aims to identify the factors affecting changes in ship value and to analyze the importance of each variable. To achieve the goal, the factors affecting changes in ship value were identified and structured using the techniques of text mining and topic modeling, and classified into three main factors and 12 sub-factors. This study used AHP analysis to examine the relative importance of each factor. Results indicated that the main factor influencing the change in the vessel value was the shipping factor, followed by the investment factor and the environment factor. Other auxiliary factors that substantially affect the ship value include the volatility of the shipping market and of shipping freight.

해운산업은 선박이라는 재화를 이용하여 화물을 운송하고 운임을 수취하여 사업을 영위하는 서비스산업이다. 따라서 선박운영을 위해 대규모 자본투자가 필요한 환경 속에서 선박의 가치가 불확실하다면 해운경영상의 리스크는 클 수 밖에 없다. 본 연구는 선박가치 변화에 영향을 미치는 변화요인을 파악하고 각 변화요인에 대한 중요도를 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 텍스트마이닝과 토픽모델링 기법을 활용하여 선박가치 변화요인을 추출하고 구조화하여 3개의 주요인과 12개의 보조요인으로 계층적 구조를 설정하였다. 이를 대상으로 AHP분석을 통해 연구를 진행하여 각 요인별 상대적 중요도를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 선박가치 변화에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 주요요인은 Shipping Factor였으며, 그 뒤를 Investment Factor와 Environment Factor가 차지하였다. 보조요인 가운데는 Volatility of Shipping Market와 Volatility of Shipping Freight 등 해운시장의 변동성과 관련된 요인들이 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2020S1A5A8042768).

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