Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers (한국해안·해양공학회논문집)

Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers (한국해안·해양공학회)
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Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Accuracy and Model Performance for Development of Coastal Wave Forecasting System Based on Unstructured Grid

비정형격자 기반 국지연안 파랑예측시스템 구축을 위한 예측정확도 및 모델성능 비교분석

  • Min, Roh (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Sang Myeong, Oh (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Pil-Hun, Chang (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Hyun-Suk, Kang (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Hyung Suk, Kim (Department of Civil Engineering, Kunsan National University)
  • 노민 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 오상명 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 장필훈 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 강현석 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 김형석 (군산대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2022.10.28
  • Accepted : 2022.11.21
  • Published : 2022.12.31
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Abstract

We develop a coastal wave forecasting system by using the unstructured grid based on sea wind data of Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System. The verification is performed to examine the performance and accuracy of the wave model. Since the conventional grid has limited wave forecasting on complex coastlines and bathymetry, the unstructured grid system is applied for precise numerical simulation, and applicability for operational support is evaluated. Both grid systems show similar prediction trends in offshore and coastal areas, and the difference in prediction errors according to the grid system is not large. In addition, the applicability of the operational wave forecasting system is confirmed by dramatically reducing the model execution time of the unstructured grid under the same conditions.

전지구수치예보모델의 해상풍 예측자료를 기반으로 비정형격자의 국지연안 파랑예측시스템을 구축하고, 파랑모델의 수행성능 및 예측성능을 검증하였다. 기존의 정형격자는 복잡한 해안선과 연안지형에서의 파랑예측이 제한적이기 때문에 정밀한 국지연안 수치모의를 위해 비정형격자체계를 적용하고, 현업 예보 지원에 대한 적용가능성을 검토하였다. 두 격자체계 모두 근해와 연안에서 유사한 예측경향을 보였고, 격자체계에 따른 예측오차의 차이도 크지 않았다. 또한 정형격자와 비교하여, 비정형격자의 모델수행시간이 동일한 조건에서 현저히 감소하는 것을 통해 비정형격자 기반 파랑예측시스템의 현업 예보 지원에 대한 적용가능성을 확인하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「해양기상감시 및 차세대 해양예측시스템 개발」(KMA2018-00420)과 국토교통부/국토교통과학기술진흥원(21DPSC-C163249-01)의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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