Geomechanics and Engineering

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A Markov-based prediction model of tunnel geology, construction time, and construction costs

  • Mahmoodzadeh, Arsalan (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Halabja) ;
  • Mohammadi, Mokhtar (Department of Information Technology, Lebanese French University) ;
  • Ali, Hunar Farid Hama (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Halabja) ;
  • Salim, Sirwan Ghafoor (City Planning Department, Technical College of Engineering, Sulaimani Polytechnic University) ;
  • Abdulhamid, Sazan Nariman (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Salahaddin University-Erbil) ;
  • Ibrahim, Hawkar Hashim (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Salahaddin University-Erbil) ;
  • Rashidi, Shima (Department of Computer Science, College of Science and Technology, University of Human Development)
  • Received : 2021.07.07
  • Accepted : 2021.12.06
  • Published : 2022.02.25
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Abstract

The necessity of estimating the time and cost required for tunnel construction has led to extensive research in this regard. Since geological conditions are significant factors in terms of time and cost of road tunnels, considering these conditions is crucial. Uncertainties about the geological conditions of a tunnel alignment cause difficulties in planning ahead of the required construction time and costs. In this paper, the continuous-space, discrete-state Markov process has been used to predict geological conditions. The Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation (MCS) method is employed to estimate the construction time and costs of a road tunnel project using the input data obtained from six tunneling expert questionnaires. In the first case, the input data obtained from each expert are individually considered and in the second case, they are simultaneously considered. Finally, a comparison of these two modes based on the technique presented in this article suggests considering views of several experts simultaneously to reduce uncertainties and ensure the results obtained for geological conditions and the construction time and costs.

Keywords

References

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