Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine (대한예방의학회)
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Projection of Cancer Incidence and Mortality From 2020 to 2035 in the Korean Population Aged 20 Years and Older

  • Youjin, Hong (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Sangjun, Lee (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Sungji, Moon (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Soseul, Sung (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Woojin, Lim (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Kyungsik, Kim (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Seokyung, An (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Jeoungbin, Choi (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine) ;
  • Kwang-Pil, Ko (Clinical Preventive Medicine Center, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital) ;
  • Inah, Kim (Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine) ;
  • Jung Eun, Lee (Department of Food and Nutrition, Seoul National University) ;
  • Sue K., Park (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine)
  • Received : 2022.03.11
  • Accepted : 2022.09.23
  • Published : 2022.11.30
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Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to identify the current patterns of cancer incidence and estimate the projected cancer incidence and mortality between 2020 and 2035 in Korea. Methods: Data on cancer incidence cases were extracted from the Korean Statistical Information Service from 2000 to 2017, and data on cancer-related deaths were extracted from the National Cancer Center from 2000 to 2018. Cancer cases and deaths were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition. For the current patterns of cancer incidence, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using the 2000 mid-year estimated population aged over 20 years and older. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the 2020 to 2035 trends in cancer. Results: Overall, cancer cases were predicted to increase from 265 299 in 2020 to 474 085 in 2035 (growth rate: 1.8%). The greatest increase in the ASIR was projected for prostate cancer among male (7.84 vs. 189.53 per 100 000 people) and breast cancer among female (34.17 vs. 238.45 per 100 000 people) from 2000 to 2035. Overall cancer deaths were projected to increase from 81 717 in 2020 to 95 845 in 2035 (average annual growth rate: 1.2%). Although most cancer mortality rates were projected to decrease, those of breast, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer among female were projected to increase until 2035. Conclusions: These up-to-date projections of cancer incidence and mortality in the Korean population may be a significant resource for implementing cancer-related regulations or developing cancer treatments.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This study was funded partly by the Korean Foundation for Cancer Research (Grant No. CB-2017-A-2) and a grant from the Seoul National University Hospital (2021).

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