Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry (대한소아치과학회지)

Korean Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (대한소아치과학회)
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Trend Analysis and Prediction of the Number of Births and the Number of Outpatients using Time Series Analysis

시계열 분석을 통한 출생아 수와 소아치과 내원 환자 수 추세 분석 및 예측

  • Hwayeon, An (Department of Pediatric Dentistry, School of Dentistry, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Seonmi, Kim (Department of Pediatric Dentistry, School of Dentistry, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Namki, Choi (Department of Pediatric Dentistry, School of Dentistry, Chonnam National University)
  • 안화연 (전남대학교 치의학전문대학원 소아치과학교실) ;
  • 김선미 (전남대학교 치의학전문대학원 소아치과학교실) ;
  • 최남기 (전남대학교 치의학전문대학원 소아치과학교실)
  • Received : 2022.05.02
  • Accepted : 2022.06.02
  • Published : 2022.08.31
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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of births in Gwangju and the number of outpatients in Pediatric Dentistry at Chonnam National University Dental Hospital over the past 10 years (2010 - 2019) and predict the next year using time series analysis. The number of births showed an unstable downward trend with monthly variations, with the highest in January and the lowest in December. The average number of births in 2020 was predicted to be 682 (595 to 782, 95% CI), and the actual number of births was an average of 610. The number of outpatients was relatively stable, showing a month-to-month variation, with highest in August and the lowest in June. The average number of patients in 2020 was predicted to be 603 (505 to 701, 95% CI), and the average number of actual visits was 587. Despite the decrease in the number of births, the number of outpatients was expected to increase somewhat. Due to the special situation of COVID-19, the actual number of births and patients was to be slightly lower than the predicted values, but it was that they were within the predicted confidence interval. Time series analysis can be used as a basic tool to prepare for the low fertility era in the field of pediatric dentistry.

이 연구의 목적은 시계열 분석을 통하여 최근 10년(2010 - 2019)간의 광주광역시 출생아 수 추이와 전남대학교 치과병원 소아치과 내원 환자 수 추이를 분석하고 향후 1년을 예측하는 것이다. 출생아 수는 월별 반복과정을 보이면서 비안정적으로 하락하는 추세를 보였으며 1월에 출생아 수가 가장 많고 12월에 가장 적은 경향을 보였다. 2020년의 출생아 수가 평균 682명(595 - 782명, 95% CI)으로 예측되었으며 실제 출생아 수는 평균 610명이었다. 소아치과 내원 환자 수는 월별 반복과정을 보이면서 비교적 안정되어 있으며 8월에 내원 환자 수가 가장 많고 6월에 가장 적은 경향을 보였다. 2020년의 내원 환자 수가 평균 603명(505 - 701명, 95% CI)으로 예측되었으며 실제 내원 환자 수의 평균은 587명이었다. 출생아 수의 기록적인 감소에도 불구하고 소아치과에 내원한 환자의 수는 다소 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. COVID-19이라는 특수한 상황으로 인하여 실제 출생아 수와 내원 환자수가 예측치보다 다소 낮게 확인되었으나 예측 범위 내에 포함됨을 확인하였다. 시계열 분석 모형은 과거를 이해하고 미래를 예측하는 유용한 방법으로 소아치과 영역에서 저출산 시대를 대비하기 위한 기초 도구로써 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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