DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

아밍턴 탄성치를 활용한 수입 수산물의 가격과 선호도 분석

Price and Preference of Fisheries Imports : Utilization of Armington Elasticity

  • 임병호 (한국해양수산개발원 수산연구본부)
  • Byeong-Ho Lim (Korea Maritime Institute, Fisheries Policy Research Division)
  • 투고 : 2021.08.07
  • 심사 : 2021.08.29
  • 발행 : 2021.08.30

초록

Armington elasticity has been a methodology for analyzing how much imports could increase in response to importing price cuts, assuming the possibility of incomplete substitution of domestic and imported products. This study calculates Armington elasticity values in Korean fisheries sector and presents an analysis method for classifying items based on price and preference differences. The model is modified reflecting the characteristics of the fisheries market along with the typical OLS, PAM, and ECM models. The result's implication is that products with a high import growth rate do not necessarily show a high Armington value, but it could be seen that price is not the only factor facilitating fisheries imports increase. Considering the items of which demand increases due to importing price cuts have an indiscriminate demand between domestic and imported products, the results could be interpreted that the Korean fisheries importing market has been easily affected by the changes in import prices. Fisheries grouping by price and preference demonstrates that explanatory variables other than price should be considered when estimating import demand.

키워드

과제정보

This work is based on "Korea-Cambodia FTA Effects Analysis('21.5.~'21.9.)" of Korea Maritime Institute

참고문헌

  1. Ahmad, S., C. Montgomery and S. Schreiber (2020), A Comparison of Armington Elasticigy Estimates in the Trade Literature (Working Paper 2020-04-A), Indiana: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP).
  2. Alaouze, C.M. (1977), Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution between Imported and Domestically Produced Goods Classified at the Input-output Level of Aggregation (Working Papers o-13), Melbourne, Australia: Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centrey.
  3. Armington, P.S. (1969), "A Theory of Demand for Products Distingushed by Place of Production", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 16(1), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866403
  4. Babula, R.A. (1987), "An Armington Model of U.S. Cottion Exports", Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 39(4), 12-22.
  5. Bajzik, J., T. Havranek, Z. Irsova and J. Schwarz (2020), "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Study Design and Publication Bias", Journal of International Economics, 127, 2020, 103383.
  6. Blonigen, B. and W.W. Wilson (1999), "Explaining Armington: What Determines Substitutability between Home and Foreign Goods?", The Canadian Journal of Economics, 32(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/136392
  7. Cheng, F. (2001), "An Armington Model of the U.S. Demand for Scallops", Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 539.
  8. Corado, C. and J. De Melo (1986), "An Ex-ante Model for Estimating the Impact on Trade Flows of a Country's Joining a Customs Union", Journal of Development Economics, 24(1), 153-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(86)90151-3
  9. Delahaye, E. E. and C.A. Milot (2020), Measuring the UK Economy's Armington Elasticities (Working Paper May 17, 2020), the 23rd Global Trade Analysis Projec (GTAP) Conference.
  10. Donnely, W.A., K. Johnson. and M. Tsigas.(2004), Revised Armington Elasticities of Substitution for the USITC Model and the Concordance for Constructing a Consistent Set for the GTAP Model, Office of Economic Research Note, U.S International Trade Commission.
  11. Engle, R. and C.W.J. Granger (1987), "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing", Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. Available from https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236.
  12. Feenstra, R.C., P. Luck, M. Obstfeld and K.N. Russ (2018), "In Search of the Armington Elasticity", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(1), 135-150. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00696
  13. Gallaway M.P., C.A. McDaniel and S.A. Rivera (2003), "Short-run and Long-run Industry-level Estimates of U.S. Armington Elasticities", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 14(1), 2003, 49-68, ISSN 1062-9408. Available from https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9408(02)00101-8.
  14. Gan, J. (2006), "Substitutability between US Domestic and Imported Forest Products: The Armington Approach", Forest Science, 52(1), 1-9. Available from https://doi.org/10.1093/forestscience/52.1.1.
  15. Gibson, K.(2003), Armington Elasticities for South Africa: Long- and Short-Run Industry Level Estimates (Working Paper 12-2003), Trade and Industrial Policy Strategy.
  16. Kapuscinski, C.A. and P.G. Warr(1999), "Estimation of Armington Elasticities: An Application to the Philippines", Economic Modelling, 16(2), 257-278. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(98)00042-X
  17. Korea Trade Statistics Promotion Institute (2021), Trade Statistics Service, Available at Available from http://www.ktspi.or.kr/main.do.
  18. Lundmark, R. and S. Shahrammehr (2012) "Armington Elasticities and Induced Industrial Roundwood Specialization in Europe", Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 4:3, 161-170. Avilable from https://doi.org/10.1080/19390459.2012.693789.
  19. Min, Kyeong-Taek (2015), "Estimating Armington Substitution Elasticity between Domestic and Imported Wood Products in Korea", Journal of Korean Forest Society. 104(2), 254-260. https://doi.org/10.14578/JKFS.2015.104.2.254
  20. Ogundeji, A.A., A. Jooste and D. Uchezuba (2010), "Econometric Estimation of Armington Elasticities for Selected Agricultural Products in South Africa", South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 13(2), 123-134. Available from https://doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v13i2.41.
  21. Reinert, K.A. and D.W. Roland-Holst (1992), "Armington Elasticities for United States Manufacturing Sectors", Journal of Policy Modeling, 14(5), 631-639. https://doi.org/10.1016/0161-8938(92)90033-9
  22. Saikkonen, Liisa (2015). Estimation of substitution and transformation elasticities for South African trade. UNU-WIDER.
  23. Shiells, C.R. and K.A. Reinert (1993), "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America", The Canadian Journal of Economics, 26(2), 299-316. Available from https://doi.org/10.2307/135909.
  24. Sirhan, G. and P.R. Johnson(1971), "A Market Share Approach to the Foreign Demand for US. Cotton'', American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 53, 593-99. https://doi.org/10.2307/1237822
  25. Souza Pedroso, A.C., O. Tourinho and H. Kume (2003), Armington Elasticities for Brazil - 1986-2002: New Estimates (IPEA Discussion Papers 974/2003), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Institute for Applied Economic Research.
  26. Tran, N., L. Chu., C.Y. Chan, S. Genschick, M.J. Philips and A.S. Kefi (2019), "Fish Supply and Demand for Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of the Zambian Fish Sector", Marine Policy, 99, 343-350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.11.009
  27. World Bank (2021), World Bank Open Data, Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%). Available from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS.
  28. Zeraatkish, S.Y., F. Rashidi and D. Rashidi (2018), "Estimate of Armington Substitution Elasticity for Fishery Products in Iran", Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences, 17(3), 603-612.