Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security (한국방재안전학회논문집)

Korean Society of Disaster & Security (한국방재안전학회)
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A Study on the Estimation of the Threshold Rainfall in Standard Watershed Units

표준유역단위 한계강우량 산정에 관한 연구

  • Choo, Kyung-Su (Urban Environment Disaster Management, Kangwon National Univ.) ;
  • Kang, Dong-Ho (Urban Environment Disaster Management, Kangwon National Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Byung-Sik (Urban Environment Disaster Management, Kangwon National Univ.)
  • 추경수 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 강동호 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공)
  • Received : 2021.05.21
  • Accepted : 2021.06.15
  • Published : 2021.06.30
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Abstract

Recently, in Korea, the risk of meteorological disasters is increasing due to climate change, and the damage caused by rainfall is being emphasized continuously. Although the current weather forecast provides quantitative rainfall, there are several difficulties in predicting the extent of damage. Therefore, in order to understand the impact of damage, the threshold rainfall for each watershed is required. The damage caused by rainfall occurs differently by region, and there are limitations in the analysis considering the characteristic factors of each watershed. In addition, whenever rainfall comes, the analysis of rainfall-runoff through the hydrological model consumes a lot of time and is often analyzed using only simple rainfall data. This study used GIS data and calculated the threshold rainfall from the threshold runoff causing flooding by coupling two hydrologic models. The calculation result was verified by comparing it with the actual case, and it was analyzed that damage occurred in the dangerous area in general. In the future, through this study, it will be possible to prepare for flood risk areas in advance, and it is expected that the accuracy will increase if machine learning analysis methods are added.

최근 우리나라에서는 기후변화로 인하여 기상재해의 위험성이 증가하고 있고 특히 강우로 인한 피해가 계속해서 강조되고 있다. 현재의 기상예보가 정량적 강우를 제시해주지만 피해 정도를 예상하는 데에는 여러 가지 어려움이 존재한다. 그래서 피해에 따른 영향을 파악하기 위해서는 유역별 한계강우량이 필요하다. 강우로 인한 피해는 지역별로 상이하게 일어나고 있고 각 유역의 특성인자가 고려된 분석은 한계가 존재한다. 또한 강우가 올 때마다 수문모델을 통한 강유-유출분석에는 시간이 많이 소모되고 단순 강우 데이터만 사용하여 분석되는 경우가 많다. 본 연구는 GIS데이터를 이용하였고 2개의 수문모델을 커플링하여 침수를 유발하는 한계유출량으로부터 한계강우량을 산정하였다. 산정결과는 실제사례와 비교하여 결과를 검증하였고 대체로 위험지역에 대해 피해가 난 것으로 분석되었다. 향후 본 연구를 통해 사전에 침수위험지역에 대해 대비를 할 수 있을 것이고 머신러닝 분석방법을 추가한다면 정확도가 높아질 것으로 예상된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This work wan funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI [2021-00312].

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