DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Probabilistic failure analysis of 400 kV transmission tower-line system subjected to wind and ice hazards

  • Mahmoudi, Amir (Department of Civil Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology) ;
  • Nasrollahzadeh, Kourosh (Department of Civil Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology) ;
  • Jafari, Mohammad Ali (Power Industry Structures Research Department, Niroo Research Institute (NRI))
  • 투고 : 2021.05.07
  • 심사 : 2021.09.25
  • 발행 : 2021.09.25

초록

Transmission line (TL) structures are exposed mostly to particular environmental conditions, which are likely to damage the line. Long experience in power systems shows that the reliability of TLs in nature is closely related to climate conditions. The purpose of this study is to develop a probabilistic framework for estimating the annual failure probability of 400kV TL components considering the coincidence of multiple hazards with the Scenario Sampling method. Regression equations are presented to account for two sources of uncertainty including the eccentricity of connection in tower modeling, and the temperature effect on the conductor's ultimate tension in loading. The correlation matrix for maximum wind speed, maximum radial ice thickness, and temperature in the studied line is presented by analyzing local meteorological data. These correlation coefficients impose a constraint on the magnitudes of the occurrence models. The tower system used in the reliability analysis is addressed by eliminating critical members and studying changes in demand-to-capacity ratios in other members. Bi-modal bounds are used to estimate the annual failure probability of the TL system. Finally, the TL towers' fragility curves for various wind speeds as well as for different values of radial ice thickness at a constant wind speed are presented within the proposed framework.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Aboshosha, H., Mara, T.G. and Izukawa, N. (2020), "Towards Performance-Based Design under Thunderstorm Winds: A New Method for Wind Speed Evaluation Using Historical Records and Monte Carlo Simulations", Wind Struct., 31(2), 85-102. https://doi.org/10.12989/WAS.2020.31.2.085.
  2. Albermani, F.G.A. and S. Kitipornchai. (2003), "Numerical simulation of structural behaviour of transmission Towers", Thin-Wall. Struct., 41(2-3), 167-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-8231(02)00085-X.
  3. Alminhana, F., Albermani, F. and Mason, M. (2015), "Comparison of responses of guyed and freestanding transmission line towers under conductor breakage loading", Int. J. Struct. Stabil. Dyn., 15(8), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219455415400234.
  4. ASCE (2015), Design of Latticed Steel Transmission Structures. ANSI/ASCE Standard. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413760.
  5. Asgarian, B., Eslamlou, S.D., Zaghi, A.E. and Mehr, M. (2016), "Progressive collapse analysis of power transmission towers", J. Construct. Steel Res., 123(August), 31-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2016.04.021.
  6. BSI (2017), Publication Overhead Transmission Lines - Design Criteria
  7. Cai, J., Xu, Q., Cao, M. and Yang, B. (2019), "A novel importance sampling method of power system reliability assessment considering multi-state units and correlation between wind speed and load", Int. J. Electric. Power Energy Syst., 109(July 2018), 217-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2019.02.019.
  8. Cai, Y., Qiang X., Songtao X., Liang H. and Ahsan K. (2019), "Fragility modelling framework for transmission line towers under winds", Eng. Struct., 191(March), 686-697. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.04.096.
  9. Carvalho, H., Correia, J., Jesus, A.D. and Calcada, R. (2018), "Aerodynamic damping in cables of overhead transmission lines subjected to wind loads", Wind Eng., 42(4), 268-275. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309524X18777312.
  10. Da Silva, J.G.S., Vellasco, P.D.S., De Andrade, S.A.L. and De Oliveira, M.I.R. (2005), "Structural assessment of current steel design models for transmission and telecommunication towers", J. Construct. Steel Res., 61(8), 1108-1134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2005.02.009.
  11. de Oliveira, C.C., Carvalho, H., Verga Mendes, V.R., Correia, J.A. F.D.O. and Fazeres-Ferradosa, T. (2020), "Nonlinear dynamic analysis of transmission line cables under synoptic wind loads", Practice Periodic. Struct. Des. Construct., 25(4), 04020035. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)sc.1943-5576.0000514.
  12. Ditlevsen, O. and Madsen, H.O. (1996), Structural Reliability Methods. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  13. Edgar, T.H. and Sordo, E. (2017), "Structural behaviour of lattice transmission towers subjected to wind load", Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 13(11), 1462-1475. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2017.1290120.
  14. El Damatty, A. and Elawady, A. (2018), "Critical load cases for lattice transmission line structures subjected to downbursts: Economic implications for design of transmission lines", Eng. Struct., 159(December2017), 213-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.12.043.
  15. Farzaneh, M. (2008), Atmospheric Icing of Power Networks. Springer.
  16. Fekr, M.R. and McClure, G. (1998), "Numerical modelling of the dynamic response of ice-shedding on electrical transmission lines", Atmos. Res. 46(1-2), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(97)00046-X.
  17. Fu, X. and Hong-Nan L. (2018), "Uncertainty analysis of the strength capacity and failure path for a transmission tower under a wind load", J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 173(February), 147-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2017.12.009.
  18. Fu, X., Hong Nan L. and Jia W. (2019), "Failure analysis of a transmission tower subjected to combined wind and rainfall excitations", Struct. Des. Tall Spec. Build., 28(10), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/tal.1615.
  19. Fu, X., Jia W., Hong-Nan L., Jia-Xiang L. and Li-Dong Y. (2019), "Full-scale test and its numerical simulation of a transmission tower under extreme wind loads", J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 190(November), 119-133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2019.04.011.
  20. Fu, X., Jia, W. and Hong-Nan L. (2018), "Failure analysis of a transmission tower induced by wind loads," In The 2018 Structures Congress (Structures18). Songdo Convensia, Incheon, Korea.
  21. Gayathri, B. and Raghavan R. (2018), "Joint stress based deflection limits for transmission line towers", Steel Compos. Struct., 26(1), 45-53. https://doi.org/10.12989/SCS.2018.26.1.045.
  22. Huda, F., Itsuro K., Naoki H. and Shozo, K. (2013), "Bolt loosening analysis and diagnosis by non-contact laser excitation vibration tests", Mech. Syst. Sig. Proc. 40(2), 589-604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2013.05.023.
  23. Hur, J. and Abdollah S. (2019), Multi-Hazard Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Off-Site Overhead Transmission Systems
  24. Ibrahim, I., Haitham A. and Ashraf El D. (2020), "Numerical characterization of downburst wind field at WindEEE dome", Wind Struct., 30(3), 231-243. https://doi.org/10.12989/WAS.2020.30.3.231.
  25. Jiang, W.Q., Wang, Z.Q., McClure, G., Wang, G.L. and Geng, J. D. (2011), "Accurate modeling of joint effects in lattice transmission towers", Eng. Struct., 33(5), 1817-1827. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2011.02.022.
  26. Kitipornchai, S., Al-Bermani, F.G.A. and Peyrot, A.H. (1994), "Effect of bolt slippage on ultimate behavior of lattice structures", J. Struct. Eng., 120(8), 2281-2187. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(1994)120:8(2281).
  27. Lee, P.S. and McClure, G. (2007), "Elastoplastic large deformation analysis of a lattice steel tower structure and comparison with full-scale tests", J. Construct. Steel Res., 63(5), 709-717. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2006.06.041.
  28. Lemaire, M. (2013), Structural Reliability. London, Wiley.
  29. Li, X., Wei, Z., Huawei, N. and Zheng Yi, W. (2018), "Probabilistic capacity assessment of single circuit transmission tower-line system subjected to strong winds", Eng. Struct., 175 (July), 517-530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.08.061.
  30. Liu, Z., Zhangjun L., Chenggao H. and Hailin L. (2019), "Dimension-reduced probabilistic approach of 3-D wind field for wind-induced response analysis of transmission tower", J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 190(693), 309-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2019.05.013.
  31. Liu, Z.X. and Feng, X.B. (2019), "A real-time reliable condition assessment system for 500 kV transmission towers based on stress measurement", Mathem. Prob. Eng., 2019(January), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/3241897.
  32. Lu, C., Ou, Y., Ma, X. and Mills, J.E. (2016), "Structural analysis of lattice steel transmission towers: A review", J. Steel Struct. Construct., 2(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.4172/2472-0437.1000114.
  33. Ma, L., Paolo, B. and Vasileios C. (2020), "Fragility models of electrical conductors in power transmission networks subjected to hurricanes", Struct. Safety 82(February), 101890. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2019.101890.
  34. Mahsuli, M. and Haukaas, T. (2013), "Computer program for multimodel reliability and optimization analysis", J. Comput. Civil Eng., 27(1), 87-98. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000204.
  35. Manis, P. and Bloodworth, A.G. (2017), "Climate change and extreme wind effects on transmission towers", Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Structures and Buildings, 170(2), 81-97. https://doi.org/10.1680/jstbu.16.00013.
  36. McClure, G. and Lapointe, M. (2003), "Modeling the structural dynamic response of overhead transmission lines", Comput. Struct., 81(8-11), 825-834. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0045-7949(02)00472-8.
  37. Melchers, R.E. (1999), Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction. Chichester, John Wiley.
  38. Meshmesha, H.M., Kennedy, J.B., Sennah, K. and Moradi, S. (2019), "Static and dynamic analysis of guyed steel lattice towers", Struct. Eng. Mech., 69(5), 567-577. https://doi.org/10.12989/SEM.2019.69.5.567.
  39. Mohammadi Darestani, Y., Shafieezadeh, A. and Cha, K. (2020), "Effect of modelling complexities on extreme wind hazard performance of steel lattice transmission towers", Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 16(6), 898-915. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1673783.
  40. OpenSees, P.E.E.R. (2006), Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. University of California, Berkeley, California.
  41. Pan, H., Tian, L., Fu, X. and Li, H. (2020), "Sensitivities of the seismic response and fragility estimate of a transmission tower to structural and ground motion uncertainties", J. Construct. Steel Res., 167(April), 105941. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2020.105941.
  42. Rao, N.P., Mohan, S.J. and Lakshmanan, N. (2005), "A study on failure of cross arms in transmission line towers during prototype testing", Int. J. Struct. Stabil. Dyn., 5(3), 435-455. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219455405001672.
  43. Rezaei, S.N., Chouinard, L., Langlois, S. and Legeron, F. (2017), "A probabilistic framework based on statistical learning theory for structural reliability analysis of transmission line systems", Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 13(12), 1538-1552. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2017.1299771.
  44. Salari, S., Hormozabad, S.J., Ghorbani-Tanha, A.K. and Rahimian, M. (2019), "Innovative mobile TMD system for semi-active vibration control of Inclined Sagged Cables", KSCE J. Civil Eng. 23(2), 641-653. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-018-0161-0.
  45. Shehata, A.Y., El Damatty, A.A. and Savory, E. (2005), "Finite element modeling of transmission line under downburst wind loading", Finite Elements Anal. Des., 42(1), 71-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finel.2005.05.005.
  46. Standard National and Canada Norme (2003), "CAN/CSA-C22.3 No. 60826-10" 10(60826).
  47. Szafran, J. and Rykaluk, K. (2017), "Steel lattice tower under ultimate load - Chosen joint analysis", Civil Environment. Eng. Reports 25(2), 199-210. https://doi.org/10.1515/ceer-2017-0030.
  48. Szafran, J., Juszczyk, K. and Kaminski, M. (2019), "Experiment-based reliability analysis of structural joints in a steel lattice tower", J. Construct. Steel Res. 154(March), 278-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2018.11.006.
  49. Szafran, J., Juszczyk, K. and Kaminski, M. (2020), "Reliability assessment of steel lattice tower subjected to random wind load by the stochastic finite-element method", ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertain. Eng. Syst., Part A: Civil Eng. 6(1), 04020003. https://doi.org/10.1061/ajrua6.0001040.
  50. Takeuchi, M., Maeda, J. and Ishida, N. (2010), "Aerodynamic damping properties of two transmission towers estimated by combining several identification methods", J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 98(12), 872-880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2010.09.001.
  51. Temple, M.C., Sakla, S.S., Stchyrba, D. and Ellis, D. (1994), "Arrangement of interconnectors for starred angle compression members", Canadian J. Civil Eng., 21(1), 76-80. https://doi.org/10.1139/l94-007.
  52. Tessari, R.K., Kroetz, H.M. and Beck, A.T. (2017), "Performance-based design of steel towers subject to wind action", Eng. Struct., 143, 549-557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.03.053.
  53. Tian, L., Haiyang P. and Ruisheng M. (2019), "Probabilistic seismic demand model and fragility analysis of transmission tower subjected to near-field ground motions", J. Construct. Steel Res., 156(May), 266-275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcsr.2019.02.011.
  54. Tian, L., Pan H., Ruisheng M. and Xu D. (2019), "Seismic failure analysis and safety assessment of an extremely long-span transmission tower-line system", Struct. Eng. Mech., 71(3), 305-315. https://doi.org/10.12989/SEM.2019.71.3.305.
  55. Tian, L., Xin Z. and Xing F. (2020), "Fragility analysis of a long-span transmission tower-line system under wind loads", Advan. Struct. Eng., February, 136943322090398. https://doi.org/10.1177/1369433220903983.
  56. Velazquez, S., Carta, J.A. and Matias, J.M. (2011), "Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per KWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: A case study in the Canary Islands", Appl. Energy, 88(11), 3869-3881. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.007.
  57. Winkelmann, K., Jakubowska, P. and Soltysik, B. (2017), "Reliability assessment of an OVH HV power line truss transmission tower subjected to seismic loading", AIP Conference Proceedings 1822(March). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4977690.
  58. Yaghoobi, S. and Shooshtari, A. (2018), "Joint slip investigation based on finite element modelling verified by experimental results on wind turbine lattice towers", Frontiers Struct. Civil Eng., 12(3), 341-351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-017-0393-y.
  59. Yang, S.C., Liu, T.J. and Hong, H.P. (2017), "Reliability of tower and tower-line systems under spatiotemporally varying wind or earthquake loads", J. Struct. Eng., 143(10), 04017137. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)st.1943-541x.0001835.
  60. Yang, X., Lei, Y., Liu, L. and Huang, J. (2020), "Simulation of nonstationary wind in one-spatial dimension with time-varying coherence by wavenumber-frequency spectrum and application to transmission line", Struct. Eng. Mech., 75(4), 425-434. https://doi.org/10.12989/SEM.2020.75.4.425.
  61. Zhang, H., Lin C., Shuhan Y., Tianyang Z. and Peng W. (2020). "Spatial-temporal reliability and damage assessment of transmission networks under hurricanes", IEEE Transact. Smart Grid 11(2), 1044-1054. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2019.2930013.
  62. Zhao, N., Guoqing H., Ruili L. and Liuliu P. (2020), "A remote long-term and high-frequency wind measurement system: Design, comparison and field testing", Wind Struct., 31(1), 21-29. https://doi.org/10.12989/WAS.2020.31.1.21.
  63. Zhou, W., Gong, C. and Hong, H.P. (2017), "New perspective on application of first-order reliability method for estimating system reliability", J. Eng. Mech., 143(9), 04017074. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)em.1943-7889.0001280.
  64. Zhuge, Y., Mills, J.E. and Ma, X. (2012), "Modelling of steel lattice tower angle legs reinforced for increased load capacity", Eng. Struct., 43, 160-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2012.05.017.