한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제63권5호
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  • Pages.49-62
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  • 2021
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  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
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SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석

Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario

  • Kim, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kwak, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soonho (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Sunghack (Convergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jae Nam (Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institutes of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2021.09.03
  • 심사 : 2021.09.13
  • 발행 : 2021.09.30
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⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

키워드

과제정보

본 결과물은 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해대응기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었음 (320046-5).

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