Ocean and Polar Research

Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (한국해양과학기술원)
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Estimation of Extreme Wind Speeds in the Western North Pacific Using Reanalysis Data Synthesized with Empirical Typhoon Vortex Model

모조 태풍 합성 재분석 바람장을 이용한 북서태평양 극치 해상풍 추정

  • Kim, Hye-In (Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University) ;
  • Moon, Il-Ju (Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University)
  • 김혜인 (제주대학교 태풍연구센터) ;
  • 문일주 (제주대학교 태풍연구센터)
  • Received : 2020.10.16
  • Accepted : 2021.02.01
  • Published : 2021.03.30
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Abstract

In this study, extreme wind speeds in the Western North Pacific (WNP) were estimated using reanalysis wind fields synthesized with an empirical typhoon vortex model. Reanalysis wind data used is the Fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) data, which was deemed to be the most suitable for extreme value analysis in this study. The empirical typhoon vortex model used has the advantage of being able to realistically reproduce the asymmetric winds of a typhoon by using the gale/storm-forced wind radii information in the 4 quadrants of a typhoon. Using a total of 39 years of the synthesized reanalysis wind fields in the WNP, extreme value analysis is applied to the General Pareto Distribution (GPD) model based on the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) method, which can be used effectively in case of insufficient data. The results showed that the extreme analysis using the synthesized wind data significantly improved the tendency to underestimate the extreme wind speeds compared to using only reanalysis wind data. Considering the difficulty of obtaining long-term observational wind data at sea, the result of the synthesized wind field and extreme value analysis developed in this study can be used as basic data for the design of offshore structures.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 해양수산부의 재원으로 한국해양과학기술진흥원의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구입니다(종합해양과학기지 구축 및 활용연구).

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