DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Assessment of Historical Earthquake Magnitudes and Epicenters Using Ground Motion Simulations

지진동 모사를 통한 역사지진 규모와 진앙 평가

  • Kim, Seongryong (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Jun (The Institute of Basic Science, Korea University)
  • 김성룡 (고려대학교 지구환경과학과) ;
  • 이상준 (고려대학교 기초과학연구원)
  • Received : 2020.12.31
  • Accepted : 2021.02.14
  • Published : 2021.03.01

Abstract

Historical records of earthquakes are generally used as a basis to extrapolate the instrumental earthquake catalog in time and space during the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the historical catalogs' input parameters determined through historical descriptions rather than any quantitative measurements are accompanied by considerable uncertainty in PSHA. Therefore, quantitative assessment to verify the historical earthquake parameters is essential for refining the reliability of PSHA. This study presents an approach and its application to constrain reliable ranges of the magnitude and corresponding epicenter of historical earthquakes. First, ranges rather than specific values of ground motion intensities are estimated at multiple locations with distances between each other for selected historical earthquakes by reviewing observed co-seismic natural phenomena, structural damage levels, or felt areas described in their historical records. Based on specific objective criteria, this study selects only one earthquake (July 24, 1643), which is potentially one of the largest historical earthquakes. Then, ground motion simulations are performed for sufficiently broadly distributed epicenters, with a regular grid to prevent one from relying on strong assumptions. Calculated peak ground accelerations and velocities in areas with the historical descriptions on corresponding earthquakes are converted to intensities with an empirical ground motion-intensity conversion equation to compare them with historical descriptions. For the ground motion simulation, ground motion prediction equations and a frequency-wavenumber method are used to consider the effects of possible source mechanisms and stress drop. From these quantitative calculations, reliable ranges of epicenters and magnitudes and the trade-off between them are inferred for the earthquake that can conservatively match the upper and lower boundaries of intensity values from historical descriptions.

Keywords

References

  1. KHNP. An Investigative Study on the Maximum Earthquake of Nuclear Power Plant Sites. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company. c2015. 402 p.
  2. Kyung JB, Kim MJ. Lee SJ, Kim JK. An Analysis of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in the Korean Peninsula. Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society. 2016 Feb;37(1):52-61. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2016.37.1.52
  3. Lee KH, Yang WS. Historical seismicity of Korea, Bulletin of the seismological Society of America. 2006 Jun;96(3):846-855. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050050
  4. Korea Meteorological Administration. Historical Earthquake Records in Korea (2-1904). Korea Meteorological Administration. c2012.
  5. Gutenberg B, Richter CF. Earthquake magnitude, intensity, energy, and acceleration: (Second paper). Bulletin of the seismological Society of America. 1956 Apr;46(2):105-145. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0460020105
  6. Kim UH, Kim SK, Baag CE. Optimization plan research on network of accelerometer and instrumental intensity map. Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea. Korea Meteorological Agency Report. 2016 Apr:3-107.
  7. Lee KH, Lee JH. Short Note: Magnitude-intensity relation for earthquakes in the Sino-Korean craton. Seismological Research Letters. 2003 May;74(3):350-352. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.74.3.350
  8. Yun KH, Jeon JS. An Earthquake Felt Area and Magnitude Relation in Korea (in Korean). Proceedings of EESK Conference. c2010.
  9. North Korea Seismology Laboratory. The List of Earthquakes in Chosun. North Korea Seismology Laboratory. c1986.
  10. Bakun WH, Wentworth CM. Estimating earthquake location and magnitude from seismic intensity data. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 1997 Dec;87(6):1502-1521.
  11. Houng SE, Hong TK. Probabilistic analysis of the Korean historical earthquake records. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2013 Oct;103(5):2782-2796. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120318
  12. Lee KW. Historical earthquake data of Korean. Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society. 1998 Dec;1(1):3-22.
  13. Kyung JB. Preparation of list for historical earthquakes in Korean peninsula and DB Construction (III). Korea Meteorological Administration. c2011.
  14. National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). Active Fault Map and Seismic Harzard Map. National Emergency Management Agency. c2012.
  15. Wood HO, Neumann F. Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale of 1931: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 1931 Dec;21(4):277-283. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0210040277
  16. Park DH, Lee JM, Baag CE, Kim JK. Stochestic prediction of strong ground motions amd attenuation equations in the southeastern Korean peninsular. Journal of the Geological Society of Korea. 2001 Feb;37(1):99-105.
  17. Jo ND, Baag CE. Estimation of Spectrum Decay Parameter and Stochastic Prediction of Strong Ground Motions in Southeastern Korea. EESK J. Earthquake Eng. 2003 Mar;7(6):59-70.
  18. Junn JG, Jo ND, Baag CE. Stochastic prediction of ground motions in southern Korea. Geosciences Journal. 2002 Sep;6:203-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02912691
  19. Yun KH, Park DH, Chang CJ, Sim TM. Estimation of aleatory uncertainty of the Ground-Motion attenuation relation based on the observed data. Proceedings of EESK Conference. c2008. p. 116-123.
  20. Emolo A, Sharma N, Festa G, Zollo A, Convertito V, Park JH, Chi HC, Lim IS. Ground-motion prediction equations for south Korean peninsula. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2015 Sep;105(5):2625-2640. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140296
  21. Hong TK, Choi ES, Park SJ, Shin JS. Prediction of ground motion and dynamic stress change in Baekdusan (Changbaishan) volcano caused by a North Korean nuclear explosion. Scientific Reports. 2016 Feb;6(1):1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-016-0001-8
  22. Boore DM. Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 1983 Dec;73(6A):865-1894.
  23. Saikia CK. Modified frequency-wavenumber algorithm for regional seismograms using Filon's quadrature: modelling of Lg waves in eastern North America. Geophysical Journal International. 1994 Jul;118(1):142-158. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1994.tb04680.x
  24. Wu YM, Teng T, Shin TC, Hsiao NC. Relationship between Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Intensity in Taiwan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2003 Feb;93(1):386-396. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120020097
  25. Kim SR, Rhie JK, Kim GY. Forward waveform modelling procedure for 1-D crustal velocity structure and its application to the southern Korean Peninsula. Geophysical Journal International. 2011 Apr;183(1):453-468.
  26. Brune JN. Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research. 1970 Sep;75(26):4997-5009. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB075i026p04997
  27. Zeng Y, Anderson JG, Yu G. A composite source model for computing realistic synthetic strong ground motions. Geophysical Research Letters. 1994 Apr;21(8):725-728. https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL00367
  28. Kim JK. Analysis of Site Amplification of Seismic Stations using Odesan Earthquake. Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea. 2009 Feb;13(1):27-34. https://doi.org/10.5000/EESK.2009.13.1.027
  29. Chai GD, Yoo SH, Rhie JK, Kang TS. Stress-drop scaling of the 2016 Gyeongju and 2017 Pohang earthquake sequences using coda-based methods. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2020 Aug;110(5):2047-2057.
  30. Kang TS, Baag CE. The 29 May 2004, MW=5.1, offshore Uljin earthquake. Korea, Geosciences Journal. 2004 Jun;8(2)115-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02910189
  31. Kim YH, Rhie JK, Kang TS, Kim KH, Kim MO, Lee SJ. The 12 September 2016 Gyeongju earthquakes:1. Observation and remaining questions. Geosciences Journal. 2016 Nov;20(6):747-752. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-016-0033-x
  32. Borcherdt RD. Estimates of site-dependent response spectra for design (methodology and justification). Earthquake Spectra. 1994 Nov;10(4):617-654. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585791
  33. Allen TI, Wald DJ. On the Use of High-Resolution Topographic Data as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions (VS30). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2009 Apr;99(2A):935-943. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080255
  34. Yun KH, Lee KR. Study on the Relations to Estimate Instrumental Seismic Intensities for the Moderate Earthquakes in South Korea. EESK J Earthquake Eng. 2018 Sep;22(6):323-332.
  35. Wald D, Quitoriano V, Heaton T, Kanamori H. Relationships between peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California. Earthquake Spectra.1999 Aug;15(3):557-564. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1586058
  36. Woo JW, Kim MO, Sheen DH, Kang TS, Rhie JK, Grigoli F, Ellsworth WL, Giardidi D. An in-depth seismological analysis revealing a causal link between the 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake and EGS project. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2019 Dec;124(1):13060-13078.
  37. Korea Meteorological Administration. Annual report of the earthquake (2016). Korea Meteorological Administration. c2017.