Journal of the Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회논문지)

Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회)
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Pattern Analysis of Apartment Price Using Self-Organization Map

자기조직화지도를 통한 아파트 가격의 패턴 분석

  • Received : 2021.07.29
  • Accepted : 2021.11.20
  • Published : 2021.11.28
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Abstract

With increasing interest in key areas of the 4th industrial revolution such as artificial intelligence, deep learning and big data, scientific approaches have developed in order to overcome the limitations of traditional decision-making methodologies. These scientific techniques are mainly used to predict the direction of financial products. In this study, the factors of apartment prices, which are of high social interest, were analyzed through SOM. For this analysis, we extracted the real prices of the apartments and selected a total of 16 input variables that would affect these prices. The data period was set from 1986 to 2021. As a result of examining the characteristics of the variables during the rising and faltering periods of the apartment prices, it was found that the statistical tendencies of the input variables of the rising and the faltering periods were clearly distinguishable. I hope this study will help us analyze the status of the real estate market and study future predictions through image learning.

최근 인공지능, 딥러닝, 빅데이터 등 4차 산업의 핵심 분야에 대한 관심이 커지면서 기존의 의사결정 문제를 전통적인 방법론의 한계점을 최소화하는 과학적 접근 방식이 대두되고 있다. 특히 이런 과학적인 기법들은 주로 금융 상품의 방향성을 예측하는데 사용되는데 본 연구에서는 사회적으로 관심이 높은 아파트 가격의 요인을 자기조직화지도를 통해 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 아파트 가격의 실질 가격을 추출하고 아파트 가격에 영향을 주는 총 16개의 입력 변수를 선정한다. 실험 기간은 1986년 1월부터 2021년 6월까지이며 아파트 가격의 상승 및 횡보 구간을 나눠 각 구간 별 변수들의 특징을 살펴본 결과, 상승 구간과 횡보 구간의 입력 변수의 통계적 성향이 뚜렷하게 구분되는 것을 알 수 있었다. 더불어 U1~U3 구간이 N1~N3 구간에 비해서 변수들의 표준편차가 상대적으로 크게 나왔다. 본 연구는 중장기적으로 상승과 하락이라는 큰 주기를 갖고 있는 부동산에 대해서 현재 시점의 현황을 정량적으로 분석한 것에 의미가 있으며 향후 이미지 학습을 통해 미래 방향성을 예측하는 연구에 도움이 되기를 기대한다.

Keywords

References

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