Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Analysis of trend and variation characteristics of UNEP and MDM climate indices: the case study of Chungcheong-do province

UNEP와 MDM 기후지수의 추세 및 변동 특성 분석: 충청도 지역을 중심으로

  • Cho, Hyungon (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Choi, Kyung-Sook (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
  • 조현곤 (경북대학교 농업토목공학과) ;
  • 최경숙 (경북대학교 농업토목공학과)
  • Received : 2021.10.22
  • Accepted : 2021.11.17
  • Published : 2021.11.30
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Abstract

As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change are increasing in recent years, it is very important to evaluate and analyze climate conditions to manage and respond to the negative effects of climate change in advance. In this study, the trends and characteristics of regional climate change were analyzed by calculating the climate indices for the Chungcheong Province. Annual and monthly UNEP-MP, UNEP-PM and MDM indices were calculated using daily data from 1973-2020 collected from 10 synoptic meteorological stations operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The normality of climate data was analyzed through the KS test, and the climate change trend was analyzed by applying the Spearman and Pearson methods. The Chungcheongnam-do region had a relatively humid climate than the Chungcheongbuk-do region, and the annual climate indices showed a dry climate trend in Cheongju and Chungju, while the climate of Seosan and Buyeo was becoming humid. Based on the monthly trend change analysis, a humid climate trend was observed in summer and autumn, while a dry climate trend was observed in spring and winter. Comparison of climate indices during the past (2001-2010) and the recent (2011-2020) years showed a higher decrease in the average climate indices during the last 10 years and a gradually drying climate change trend was recorded.

최근 기후변화로 인한 극한기상 현상의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이므로 기후조건을 평가 분석하여 기후변화에 의한 부정적인 영향을 사전에 관리하고 대응하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 충청도 지역의 기후지수를 산정하여 지역 기후의 추세변화와 최근 20년간 기후의 변동 특성을 분석하였다. 기상청에서 운영하고 있는 10개 종관기상관측소의 1973년-2020년 동안의 기상자료를 활용하여 연도별, 월별 UNEP-MP 지수, UNEP-PM지수과 MDM지수를 산정하고 K-S 검정 통한 정규성 분석, Pearson기법과 Spearman기법을 적용하여 기후변화의 추세를 분석하였다. 충청남도 지역이 충청북도 지역보다 상대적으로 습한 기후로 평가 되었으며 연 기후지수 추세 변화는 청주, 충주 등의 지점에서 건조 기후 추세를 보인반면 서산, 부여 등의 지점에서는 습윤 기후 추세를 보였다. 월별 추세변화 분석 결과 여름과 가을에 습윤 기후 경향을 보인 반면 봄과 겨울에는 건조 기후 경향을 보였다. 과거 10년(2001년-2010년)과 최근 10년(2011년-2020년) 동안 기후지수의 비교에서는 과거 10년보다 최근 10년 동안에 평균 기후지수가 감소하였으며 추세 변화 또한 건조기후 추세를 보였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 결과물은 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해대응 기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었음(321071-3).

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