Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Future Inundation Risk Evaluation of Farmland in the Moohan Stream Watershed Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

CMIP5 및 CMIP6 GCM 기반 무한천 유역 농경지 미래 침수 위험도 분석

  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soonho (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kwak, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Kyeung (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hyun Ji (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Seokhyeon (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Cho, Jaepil (Convergence Laboratory for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jae Nam (Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2020.09.14
  • Accepted : 2020.11.03
  • Published : 2020.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 general circulation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) and GATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not show significant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantly larger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probability rainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has been analyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.

Keywords

References

  1. Cho, J. P., I. G. Jung, W. I. Cho, and S. W. Hwang, 2018. User-centered climate change scenarios technique development and application of Korean peninsula. Journal of Climate Change Ressearch 9(1): 13-29 (in Korean). doi:10.15531/KSCCR.2018.9.1.13.
  2. Hwang, D. J., B. G. Kim, and J. K. Shim, 2012a. Affecting discharge of flood water in paddy field from selecting rainfall with fixed and unfixed duration. Journal of Korean National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage 19(1): 64-76 (in Korean).
  3. Hwang, S. H., M. S. Kang, J. H. Kim, J. H. Song, S. M. Jun, S. H. Lee, and J. Y. Choi, 2012b. Assessment of flood impact on downstream of reservoir group at Hwangryong river watershed. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 54(3): 103-111 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.3.103.
  4. Jeong, J. H., K. S. Yoon, S. M. Choi, S. G. Yoon, Y. B. Go, and Y. T. Kim, 2010. Investigation and complementary measures establishment for flood on tidal reclaimed paddy fields. Journal of Korean National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage 17(2): 105-114 (in Korean).
  5. Jun, S. M., H. J. Lee, S. H. Hwang, J. H. Song, S. K. Choi, and M. S. Kang, 2019a. General inundation modeling of paddy field districts considering drainage delay. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 61(4): 87-96 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2019.61.4.87.
  6. Jun, S. M., J. H. Song, S. K. Choi, K. D. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2018. Combined 1D/2D inundation simulation of riverside farmland using HEC-RAS. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 60(5): 135-147 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2018.60.5.135.
  7. Jun, S. M., M. S. Kang, I. Song, S. H. Hwang, K. U. Kim, and J. Park, 2013. Effects of agricultural reservoir rehabilitation on their flood control capacities. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 55(6): 57-68 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.6.057.
  8. Jun, S. M., M. S. Kang, S. Hwang, J. Park, and J. H. Song, 2020. Flood vulnerability assessment for prioritizing and evaluating rehabilitation of ungauged reservoirs considering climate change. Water 12(7): 1901. doi:10.3390/w12071901.
  9. Jun, S. M., S. H. Hwang, J. H. Song, S. N. Kim, S. K. Choi, and M. S. Kang, 2019b. Improvement of cross-section estimation method for flood stage analysis in unmeasured streams. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 61(4): 11-22 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2019.61.4.011.
  10. Kang, M. S., P. Srivastava, J. H., Song, J. Park, Y. Her, S. M. Kim, and I. Song, 2016. Development of a component-based modeling framework for agricultural water-resource management. Water 8: 351. doi:10.3390/w8080351.
  11. Kim, S. N., S. M. Jun, H. J. Lee, S. H. Hwang, S. K. Choi, and M. S. Kang, 2020. Establishment of inundation probability DB for forecasting the farmland inundation risk using weather forecast data. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 62(4): 33-43 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.4.033.
  12. Lee, H. J., 2019. Estimation of farmland inundation probability based on temporal distribution of forecasted-rainfall. Ms. diss. Seoul National University (in Korean).
  13. Lee, J. Y., S. Lee, S. G. Lee, and J. A. Um, 2019. Computational simulation of earth dam failure and analysis of flooded area. Journal of Computational Fluids Engineering 24(4): 85-92 (in Korean). doi:10.6112/kscfe.2019.24.4.085.
  14. MAFRA (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affaairs), 2018. Design standard for agricultural production infrastructure (in Korean).
  15. ME (Ministry of Environment), 2019. Standard guidelines for calculating flood volume (in Korean).
  16. Pokhrel, I., A. Kalra, M. M. Rahaman, and R. Thakali, 2020. Forecasting of future flooding and risk assessment under CMIP6 climate projection in Neuse river, North Carolina. Forecasting 2(3): 323-345. doi:10.3390/forecast2030018.
  17. Ryu, J. H., M. S. Kang, S. M. Jun, J. Park, and K. D. Lee, 2017. Future inundation characteristics analysis for the Cheongmi stream watershed considering non-stationarity of precipitation. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 59(1): 81-96 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.1.081.
  18. Shin, S. B., M. S. Kang, S. M. Jun, J. H. Song, K. U. Kim, J. H. Ryu, J. Park, D. G. Lee, and K. D. Lee, 2016. Estimating ungauged river section for flood stage analysis. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 58(5): 11-18 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2016.58.5.011.
  19. Xin, X., T. Wu, J. Zhang, J. Yao, and Y. Fang, 2020. Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 simulations of precipitation in China and the East Asian summer monsoon. International Journal of Climatology 2020: 1-18. doi:10.1002/joc.6590.