Korea Trade Review (무역학회지)

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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Causality Tests of Korean Firm's FDI and Exports toward Vietnam

한국 기업의 대(對)베트남 FDI와 수출 간 인과성 검정

  • Jihoon Kang (Kyunghee Trade Research Institute, Kyunghee University)
  • 강지훈 (경희대학교 무역연구소)
  • Received : 2020.07.31
  • Accepted : 2020.08.28
  • Published : 2020.08.31
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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Granger Causality relations between Korean FDI and exports in Vietnam using time-series from 2005 to 2019. Using 15-industry semi-annual data of Korean FDI and exports toward Vietnam, the Granger Causality Tests were conducted. Var and VEC models were decided after unit-root and cointegration tests of variables. Findings and implications of the empirical tests are as follows. First, unexpectedly FDI did not Grange-cause exports only in one direction. In two industries, food & beverage and medical & chemical products, there were Granger causality relations in both directions. In eight industries including print, publishig, pulp & paper, exports did Grange-cause FDI. In the rest of five industries including automative & trailer industry, there were no Granger Causality relation in both directions. Second, we presume that the both direction-causality relations are desirable phenomenon for Korea. Because Korean FDI and exports are increasing at the same time. On the other hand, substitution relationship between Korea's exports and FDI occur in the industry that exports did Grange-cause FDI. Finally, more in-depth researches considering Vietnam's consumer demand and the oriented characteristics of FDI are needed. The results of this research will contribute to understand structural patterns of FDI and exports in Vietnam and to make investment and export decisions.

Keywords

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