Journal of Environmental Science International (한국환경과학회지)

The Korean Environmental Sciences Society (한국환경과학회)
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Predicting the Design Rainfall for Target Years and Flood Safety Changes by City Type using Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis and Climate Change Scenario

기후변화시나리오와 비정상성 빈도분석을 이용한 도시유형별 목표연도 설계강우량 제시 및 치수안전도 변화 전망

  • Jeung, Se-Jin (Kangwon Institute of Inclusive Technology) ;
  • Kang, Dong-Ho (Department of Urban Environmental & Disaster Management School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byung-Sik (Department of Urban Environmental & Disaster Management School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University)
  • 정세진 (강원종합기술연구원) ;
  • 강동호 (강원대학교 방재전문대학원 도시환경&재난관리전공) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 방재전문대학원 도시환경&재난관리전공)
  • Received : 2020.04.16
  • Accepted : 2020.07.10
  • Published : 2020.09.30
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Abstract

Due to recent heavy rain events, there are increasing demands for adapting infrastructure design, including drainage facilities in urban basins. Therefore, a clear definition of urban rainfall must be provided; however, currently, such a definition is unavailable. In this study, urban rainfall is defined as a rainfall event that has the potential to cause water-related disasters such as floods and landslides in urban areas. Moreover, based on design rainfall, these disasters are defined as those that causes excess design flooding due to certain rainfall events. These heavy rain scenarios require that the design of various urban rainfall facilities consider design rainfall in the target years of their life cycle, for disaster prevention. The average frequency of heavy rain in each region, inland and coastal areas, was analyzed through a frequency analysis of the highest annual rainfall in the past year. The potential change in future rainfall intensity changes the service level of the infrastructure related to hand-to-hand construction; therefore, the target year and design rainfall considering the climate change premium were presented. Finally, the change in dimensional safety according to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario was predicted.

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References

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