Journal of Korea Trade

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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Visualization, Economic Complexity Index, and Forecasting of South Korea International Trade Profile: A Time Series Approach

  • Received : 2019.12.27
  • Accepted : 2020.02.20
  • Published : 2020.02.28
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Abstract

Purpose - The recent growth of South Korean products in the international market is the benchmark for both developed as well as developing countries. According to the development index, the role of international trade is indeed crucial for the development of the national economy. However, the visualization of the international trade profile of the country is the prerequisite of governmental policy decision-makers and guidance for forecasting of foreign trade. Design/methodology - We have utilized data visualization techniques in order to visualize the import & export product space and trade partners of South Korea. Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) were used to identify the Korean international trade diversification, whereas the time series approach is used to forecast the economy and foreign trade variables. Findings - Our results show that Chine, U.S, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan are the leading trade partners of Korea. Overall, the ECI of South Korea is growing significantly as compared to China, Hong Kong, and other developed countries of the world. The expected values of total import and export volume of South Korea are approximately US$535.21 and US$ 781.23B, with the balance of trade US$ 254.02B in 2025. It was also observed from our analysis that imports & exports are equally substantial to the GDP of Korea and have a significant correlation with GDP, GDP per capita, and ECI. Originality/value - To maintain the growth rate of international trade and efficient competitor for the trade partners, we have visualized the South Korea trade profile, which provides the information of significant export and import products as well as main trade partners and forecasting.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

The authors wish to acknowledge Incheon National University (INU), Korea for providing funding to support the research reported in this paper.

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