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회귀분석을 통한 공공청사 골조 공사의 개산견적 방안

Conceptual Cost Estimate Method of Public Office Building Structural Frame Work by Regression Analysis

  • Jo, Yeong-Ho (Department of Architectural Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Choi, Hyun-Jun (Department of Architectural Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Kim, Jung-Won (Department of Architectural Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Yun, Seok-Heon (Department of Architectural Engineering, ERI, Gyeongsang National University)
  • 투고 : 2020.01.28
  • 심사 : 2020.03.09
  • 발행 : 2020.04.20

초록

프로젝트 초기단계에서 적정공사비 산정은 필수적이다. 적정공사비 산출을 위해서는 개산견적은 중요한 요인이 된다. 하지만 국내의 개산견적 활용 현황은 건물 유형에 따른 단위면적당 공사비만 활용하는데 그치고 있어 그 정확도가 높지 않다. 이에 본 연구에서는 따른 골조 공사의 공통 내역항목 수량을 연면적에 의한 회귀식을 제시하여 골조 공사의 철근, 레미콘, 거푸집에 대하여 개산 수량을 산출하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 회귀식의 정확성과 타당성을 검증하기 위해 기존에 사용된 개산 수량법과 본 연구에서 제시한 회귀식을 실 사례에 적용하여 비교분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 기존 개산 수량 법은 실소요 수량에 비해 발생한 오차율이 -102 ~ 55%였으며, 이에 기존 개산수량 법은 AACE에서 제시한 개산견적 정확도 범위인 -50~100%에 초과되었으나, 본 연구에서 제시한 회귀식의 오차율은 -6.4 ~ 11.62%였다. 이는 AACE의 개산견적 정확도 범위뿐만 아니라 상세견적 단계에서도 사용할 수 있다고 볼 수 있다. 그러나 더 높은 기대효과를 기대하기 위해서는 향후 수량뿐만 아니라 단가에 대한 영향요인을 분석하여 적정 공사비를 산출하는 연구가 필요하다고 판단된다.

It is important to estimate the optimal construction cost at the early stage of the project. In this regard, conceptual cost estimate is an important factor for estimate optimal construction cost. However, domestic conceptual cost estimate are only used as cost per unit area according to the building type, and it's accuracy is not high. Hence, the purpose of this study is to calculate the approximate quantity and cost for reinforcing bars, concrete, and formwork by presenting a regression formula based on the total floor area of the common work items in the frame work. In order to verify the accuracy and validity of the regression formula presented in this study, a comparative analysis was performed by applying the regression formula and the traditional approximate quantity take-off method to real cases. As a result, the estimated error rate of the traditional method was -102~+55%, and exceeded the estimated conceptual cost estimate accuracy range of -50~+100% suggested by AACE(American Association of Cost Engineering). On the other hand, the error rate of the regression formula method presented in this study was -6.4~+11.62%. This can be used not only for conceptual cost estimate range of accuracy, but also for detailed estimates. However, it is necessary to analyze the factors that affect the unit price as well as quantity in order to calculate the appropriate cost.

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참고문헌

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