Fashion & Textile Research Journal (한국의류산업학회지)

The Society of Fashion and Textile Industry (한국의류산업학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

The Relationship between the Fashion Industry and Macro Variables - Focus on Fashion Listed Company -

패션산업과 거시 변수들간의 관계 -패션 상장기업 중심으로-

  • Kwon, Ki Yong (Dept. of Textiles, Merchandising and Fashion Design, Seoul National University) ;
  • Choo, Ho Jung (Research Institute of Human Ecology, Seoul National University)
  • 권기용 (서울대학교 의류학과) ;
  • 추호정 (서울대학교 생활과학연구소)
  • Received : 2019.11.28
  • Accepted : 2020.01.17
  • Published : 2020.02.28
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study examines the time causal relationship between the operation profit of the listed fashion companies and the macro variables. Operating profit data of 36 listed fashion companies from 2000 to 2017 has been used. Macro variables include household income, household expenditure, number of Korean overseas travelers, number of foreigner travelers and sentiment index. The study results are as follows. First, the number of outbound travelers from Korea has a negative effect on the operating profit of listed fashion companies; however the number of foreigner visiting Korea has a positive effect at 0 time lag. Second, the consumer sentiment index had a positive effect on the sales and the operating profits of the listed fashion companies with a time difference between the 3rd and the 4th quarter. Third, a disposable income has a positive effect on the operating profit of listed fashion companies. Last, educational expenses have a negative effect on operating profit with a time lag between the first and the second quarter. The findings can be used as useful information to analyze the fashion industry and help fashion companies improve their financial performances.

Keywords

References

  1. Baek, H. Y., & Ahn, S. Y. (2012). The difference of the effects of private tutoring expenditure on the change of consumption structure of households depending on income bracket. Korean Social Policy Review, 19(3), 9-47. doi:10.17000/kspr.19.3.2012. 09.9
  2. Bang, S. K. (2002). A study on fashion accessory consumer's purchasing behavior. Unpublished master's thesis, Ewha Womans University, Seoul.
  3. Bank of Korea. (2016). Composite consumer sentiment index. Retrieved June 01, 2018, from http://www.bok.or.kr/portal/ecEdu/ ecWordDicary/search.do?menuNo=200688&query=%EC%86%8C%EB%B9%84%EC%9E%90%EC%8B%AC%EB%A6%AC%EC%A7%80%EC%88%98&ecWordSn=314
  4. Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?. The American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
  5. Cho, G. W. (2011). What happened to the Korean economy in 2011? [한국경제, 2011년에 무슨 일이] Retrieved October 14, 2018, from http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/economy_general/791838.html
  6. Cho, H. (2013). A study on the usage status of smart phone users by gender and age. Internet and Security Focus, 11(0), 35-51.
  7. Cho, J. H. (2016, December 5). Only 5 out of 37 fashion listed com- panies increase sales. The International Textile Fashion News. Retrieved May 2, 2018, from http://www.itnk.co.kr/news/article View.html?idxno=51521
  8. Cho, W. S., & Choi, H. J. (2014). An effects of education expenditures on the economic growth. International Commerce and Information Review, 16(2), 185-198
  9. Chung, K. C. (2018, April 6). 60 listed textile fashion companies caught all three rabbits. Korea Textile Newspaper. Retrieved May 2, 2018, from http://www.ktnews.com/news/articleView.html?idxno =106714.
  10. Consortium of Korea Fashion Industry Institute. (2005). 패션 시장규모 [Fashion Market Scale Survey]. Seoul: Presses Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.
  11. Curtin, R. (2002). Surveys of consumers: Theory, methods, and interpretation. NABE 44th Annual Meeting, September 30, 2002, Washington, DC.
  12. Dechow, P. M. (1994). Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance: The role of accounting accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 18(1), 3-42. doi:10.1016/ 0165-4101(94)90016-7
  13. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. doi: 10.2307/ 2286348
  14. Flores, G., Krishnakumar, J., O'Donnell, O., & Doorslaer, V. (2008). Coping with health-care costs: Implications for the measurement of catastrophic expenditures and poverty. Health Economics, 17(12), 1393-1412. doi:10.1002/hec.1338
  15. Granger, C. W. (1980). Testing for causality: a personal viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1(2), 329-352. doi:10.1016/0165-1889(80)90069-X
  16. Ham, J. Y., & Son, J. Y. (2012). Causality between housing price and policy: Is housing policy exogenous?. Housing Studies, 20(4), 27- 45.
  17. Hur, Y. K., Jang, K. S., Kim, S. J., & Kim, H. M. (2008). The granger casuality analysis between prices and trading volume in the housing market - Focused on apartment property markets in Seoul. Housing Studies Review, 16(4), 49-70.
  18. Hwang, J. H. (2012). A study on the economic impacts of consumption spending on overseas tourists. Journal of Tourism and Leisure Research, 24(6), 175-194.
  19. Hwang, S. P. (2009). Impact of changes in consumption structure on industrial structure. 금융경제연구, 1(1), 1-47.
  20. Jeong, B. S., & Lim, J. M. (2017). An empirical analysis of housing consumer psychology and apartment auction price. Journal of Real Estate Analysis, 1(1), 109-123.
  21. Jho, K. H. (2011). A comparative study of household food consumption expenditures. 학문과기독교세계관, 4(0), 77-93.
  22. Ji, H. K., & Rhee, E. R. (1999). The characteristics of clothing consumption expenditures by the business cycles in Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles, 23(5), 745- 456.
  23. Kang, M. J. (2012). A study on the urban household's telecom- munications expenditure. Journal of Commodity Science and Technology, 30(1), 49-55. doi:10.36345/kacst.2012.30.1.005
  24. Kang, N. C., & Choi, H. S. (2014). The operating income measure and information contents of operating performance disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 32(4), 437-454.
  25. Kim, B. (2014). A study on beauty tourism consumption of Chinese tourists in Korea. Journal of Beauty Industry, 8(2), 5-26.
  26. Kim, G. H., Kim, K. H., & Lee, J. H. (2016). Study on the causality and lead-lag relationship between size of house sub market and the consumer sentiment survey. Journal of the Korea Academia- Industrial Cooperation Society, 17(4), 682-691. doi:10.5762/ KAIS.2016.17.4.682
  27. Kim, H. R., & Choe, H. C. (1999). The influences of household income and asset in the consumption expenditures according to housing tenure. Family and Environment Research, 37(10), 91-106.
  28. Kim, J. O., Kim, N. J., & Jeong, C. (2013). Effects of the perception of K-pop on destination image and visit intention to Korea: Focusing on Chinese undergraduate students. Journal of Tourism Sciences, 37(1), 77-101.
  29. Kim, S. H. (2005). The sales promotion effect of bargain sale of department store: Focused on the differences by year and merchandise class, and on the relationship with the consumer attitude Index. Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles, 29(11), 1389-1398.
  30. Kim, S. Y., Fang, X. Z., & Yoo, S. J. (2013). Causality between sales price of housing index and consumer sentiment index: Impact on Korea(south) and China. The Journal of Modern China Studies, 15(1), 175-210.
  31. Kiwoom Securities. (2017). Listed companies analysis. Seoul: Kiwoom securities.
  32. Kim, Y. R., & Kang, Y. S. (2015). A study on the relationship between consumer sentiment and inventory management. Korean Corporation Management Review, 22(4), 101-120.
  33. Kotler, P. (2000). Marketing management: The millennium edition. Marketing Management, 23(6), 188-193.
  34. Korea Culture & Tourism Institute. (2017a). 국민여행실태조사보고서 [National travel survey report]. Retrieved October 14, 2018, from https://kto.visitkorea.or.kr/kor/notice/data/statis/tstatus/natstatus/ board/view.kto?id=430094&isNotice=false&instanceId=296&rnum=1
  35. Korea Culture & Tourism Institute. (2017b). 한국관광통계 [Korea tourism statics]. Retrieved June 20, 2018, from http://kto.visitkorea.or.kr/kor/notice/data/statis/profit/board/view.kto?id=379522&isNotice=true&instanceId=294&rnum=0
  36. Korea Federation of Textiles Industries. (2018). 한국 패션시장 규모 2018 [Korean Fashion Consumer Market Size in 2018]. Retrieved May 2, 2018, from http://www.kofoti.or.kr/bbs/data/ 1808_data_14.pdf
  37. Korea Economic Research Institute. (2017). 국내소비 1.6%씩 늘어 나는 동안, 해외소비 10.1% 증가 [Domestic consumption increased by 1.6%, while overseas consumption increased by 10.1%]. Retrieved December 01, 2018 from http://www.keri.org/ web/www/news_02?p_p_id=EXT_BBS&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&_EXT_BBS_struts_action=%2Fext%2Fbbs%2Fview_message&_EXT_BBS_messageId=355073
  38. Korea Tourism Organization. (1999). 외래관광객 실태조사보고서 [National travel survey report] Retrieved October 14, 2018, from http://dl.nanet.go.kr/SearchDetailView.do?cn=MONO1200000896
  39. Lee, C. W., Kim, K. S., & Lee, S. W. (2000). On the informativeness of the quality of operating income. 회계와 세무감사연구, 36(1), 1-27.
  40. Lee, E. Y. (1997). Fashion Marketing. Seoul: Kyomoonsa.
  41. Lee, D. J. (1998). An investigation of causality between travel expenditure and macro-economic variables. Korea Journal of Tourism Research, 2(25), 26-38.
  42. Lee, J. H., & Han, D. H. (2016). Essentials of corporate finance. Seoul: Parkyoungsa.
  43. Lee, J. H., & Kim, M. H. (2014). K-pop과 드라마 검색 데이터로 본 한류의 현주소 [The current address of the Korean wave in K-pop and drama search data]. Retrieved December 11, 2018, from http://www.lgeri.com/report/view.do?idx=18430
  44. Lee, J. K. (2009). Characteristics of the Affordable Housing Based on Disposable Income of Households in Seoul. Journal of Korea Planning Association, 44(7), 97-108.
  45. Lee, K., & Choi, S. (2003). 관광산업의 지역경제 기여효과 분석 [Economic impact analysis of regional tourism industry]. Retrieved December 11, 2018, from http://www.cultureline.kr/webgear/board_pds/6806/D001385.PDF
  46. Lee, Y. R. (2015). A study on the effects of household income volatility on housing occupancy and housing demand. Review of Real Estate and Urban Studies, 7(2), 41-59.
  47. Lim, H. J., & Park, K. W. (2012). Expenditures on education and household saving ratio. Bank of Korea, 18(3), 115-155.
  48. Min, K. S. (2016). Leisure time and satisfaction among South Koreans: Disparity by income, age, and gender. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Yonsei University, Seoul.
  49. Mondal, S., Lucas, H., Peters, D., & Kanjilal, B. (2014). Catastrophic out-of-pocket payment for healthcare and implications for household coping strategies: Evidence from west Bengal, India. Economics Bulletin, 34(2), 1303-1316.
  50. Moon, G. (2006). The relation between price changes, volatilities and trading volume changes in Korean stock market. The Korean Academic Association of Business Administration, 19(4), 1441- 1460.
  51. Noh, M. J., & Yoo. S. J. (2016). A relationship between sales prices of APT and Consumer Sentiment. 국토연구, 89(0), 3-13. doi:10. 15793/kspr.2016.89.001
  52. Park, J. S. (2014, May 2). Digital Times. Retrieved from http:// www.dt.co.kr/contents.html?article_no=2014052602010231747002
  53. Park, E. H., & Ku, Y. S. (2012). Lifestyle, fast fashion attitude, and cosmetics behavior according to college student pursuit of clothing benefits typology. Journal of Fashion Business, 16(1), 121-136. doi:10.17053/jcc.2012.15.3.007
  54. Park, E. J. (2005). Mediating effects of browsing on impulse buying behavior for fashion products. Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles, 29(10), 1340-1348.
  55. Park, M. S. (2016). 연령별 관광소비패턴 변화의 내수파급효과 [Domestic spillover effects of tourism consumption pattern changes by age]. Korea institute for industrial economic & trade. Retrieved December 10, 2018, from http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_ web/?sub_num=12&state=view&idx=52696
  56. Park, M. S., Kyo, D. Y., & Lee, S. H. (2015). 관광수요패턴변화 가 내수경기에 미치는 영향분석[Analysis of the impact of tourism demand patterns on the domestic economy] Seoul: Press Institute of Industry.
  57. Park, S. M., & Huh, K. O. (2012). A structural relationship between consumption value, consumption behavior and consumption satisfaction by income class. Journal of Consumption Culture, 15(3), 139-157. doi:10.17053/jcc.2012.15.3.007
  58. Ryu, S. H. (2017). International visitor survey. Retrieved June 20, 2018, from http://kto.visitkorea.or.kr/kor/notice/data/statis/tstatus/ forstatus/board/view.kto?id=429831&isNotice=false&instanceId=295&rnum=7
  59. Seong, E. Y. (2018). Impact of disposable income and built environment factor on retail business sales -Focused on restaurants, supermarkets and cellphone shops in Seoul. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Hanyang University, Seoul.
  60. So, Y. K. (2000). Structure of the consumption expenditure by income bracket: Comparative analysis before and after IMF. Family and Environment Research, 38(12), 1-14.
  61. Statics Korea. (2017a). 가계동향조사 [Household trend survey]. Retrieved June 20, 2018, from http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml. do?orgId=301&tblId=DT_040Y002&vw_cd=MT_ZTITLE&list_id=301_G&seqNo=&lang_mode=ko&language=kor&obj_var_id=&itm_id=&conn_path=MT_ZTITLE
  62. Statics Korea. (2017b). 사회조사 [Social Survey]. Retrieved June 20, 2018, from http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId =DT_1SSED110R&vw_cd=MT_ZTITLE&list_id=101_D214&seqNo=&lang_mode=ko&language=kor&obj_var_id=&itm_id=&conn_path=MT_ZTITLE
  63. Statics Korea. (2017c). 소비자심리지수 [Consumer sentiment index]. Retrieved June 20, 2018, from http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml. do?orgId=301&tblId=DT_040Y002&vw_cd=MT_ZTITLE&list_id=301_G&seqNo=&lang_mode=ko&language=kor&obj_var_id=&itm_id=&conn_path=MT_ZTITLE
  64. Wilkes, A., Hao, Y., Bloom, G., & Xingyuan, G. (1997). Coping with the costs of sever illness in rural China. Brighton. Institute of Development Studies United Kingdom. Retrieved June 5, 2018 from https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/123456789/ 3362/Wp58.pdf?sequence=1
  65. Woo, K. S., & Shin, Y. J. (2015). The effect of catastrophic health expenditure on household economy: Focusing on financial coping and poverty. 보건사회연구, 35(3), 166-198. doi:10.15709/hswr. 2015.35.3.166
  66. Woo, M. H., Lee, J. H., & Chung, I. J. (2003). The influence of macro economic environmental change on the food service industries. Tourism & Leisure Research, 15(2), 79-98.
  67. Yoo, K. W. (2010). The impact of education expenditure on household saving and consumption behaviors in Korea. Journal of Consumer Studies, 21(4), 135-160.
  68. Yoon, S. H. (2013). European acceptance of K - pop and youth acceptance strategies of cultural diffusion. Korean Journal of Journalism & Communication Studies, 57(3), 135-161.