Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Accuracy evaluation of threshold rainfall impacting pedestrian using ROC

ROC를 이용한 보행에 영향을 미치는 한계강우량의 정확도 평가

  • Choo, Kyungsu (Department of Urban Environmental Disaster Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kang, Dongho (Department of Urban Environmental Disaster Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byungsik (Department of Urban Environmental Disaster Management, Kangwon National University)
  • 추경수 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 강동호 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공)
  • Received : 2020.11.04
  • Accepted : 2020.11.16
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

Recently, as local heavy rains occur frequently in a short period of time, economic and social impacts are increasing beyond the simple primary damage. In advanced meteorologically advanced countries, realistic and reliable impact forecasts are conducted by analyzing socio-economic impacts, not information transmission as simple weather forecasts. In this paper, the degree of flooding was derived using the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) and FLO-2D models to calculate the threshold rainfall that can affect human walking, and the threshold rainfall of the concept of Grid to Grid (G2G) was calculated. In addition, although it was used a lot in the medical field in the past, a quantitative accuracy analysis was performed through the ROC analysis technique, which is widely used in natural phenomena such as drought or flood and machine learning. As a result of the analysis, the results of the time period similar to that of the actual and simulated immersion were obtained, and as a result of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve, the adequacy of the fair stage was secured with more than 0.7.

최근 단기간의 국지성호우가 빈번하게 발생하면서 단순 1차적 피해를 넘어 경제적, 사회적 영향이 커지고 있다. 기상선진국에서는 단순 기상예보로서의 정보전달이 아닌 사회 경제적 영향을 분석하여 현실적이고 신뢰할 수 있는 영향예보를 실시하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 사람의 보행에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 영향한계강우량을 산정하기 위해서 Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT), FLO-2D 모델을 사용하여 침수정도를 도출하였고 Grid to Grid (G2G)개념의 한계강우량을 산정하였다. 또한, 과거 의학 분야에서 많이 사용하였지만 현재는 가뭄이나 홍수 등의 자연현상 및 머신러닝에 많이 사용하는 ROC 분석 기법을 통해 정량적인 정확도분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 실제 침수와 모의 침수가 비슷한 시간대의 결과가 나왔으며 ROC 곡선의 결과 0.7이상으로 Fair 단계의 적정성을 확보하였다.

Keywords

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