Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence (한국산업융합학회 논문집)

The Korean Society of Industry Convergence (한국산업융합학회)
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A Segmented Model with Upside-Down Bathtub Shaped Failure Intensity

Upside-Down 욕조 곡선 형태의 고장 강도를 가지는 세분화 모형

  • Park, Woo-Jae (C4ISR Systems Center, Defense Agency for Technology and Quality) ;
  • Kim, Sang-Boo (School of Industrial & Systems and Naval Architecture Engineering, Changwon National University)
  • 박우재 (국방기술품질원 지휘정찰센터) ;
  • 김상부 (창원대학교 산업시스템 및 조선해양융합공학부)
  • Received : 2020.11.22
  • Accepted : 2020.12.11
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

In this study, a segmented model with Upside-Down bathtub shaped failure intensity for a repairable system are proposed under the assumption that the occurrences of the failures of a repairable system follow the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process. The proposed segmented model is the compound model of S-PLP and LIP (Segmented Power Law Process and Logistic Intensity Process), that fits the separate failure intensity functions on each segment of time interval. The maximum likelihood estimation is used for estimating the parameters of the S-PLP and LIP model. The case study of system A shows that the S-PLP and LIP model fits better than the other models when compared by AICc (Akaike Information Criterion corrected) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). And it also implies that the S-PLP and LIP model can be useful for explaining the failure intensities of similar systems.

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References

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