대한조선학회논문집 (Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea)

  • 제57권5호
  • /
  • Pages.305-311
  • /
  • 2020
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  • 1225-1143(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2287-7355(eISSN)
대한조선학회 (The Society of Naval Architects of Korea)
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베이지안 추론을 이용한 VLOC 모형선 구조응답의 확률론적 시계열 예측

Probabilistic Time Series Forecast of VLOC Model Using Bayesian Inference

  • 손재현 (인하대학교 공과대학 조선해양공학과) ;
  • 김유일 (인하대학교 공과대학 조선해양공학과)
  • Son, Jaehyeon (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, College of Engineering, INHA University) ;
  • Kim, Yooil (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, College of Engineering, INHA University)
  • 투고 : 2020.05.27
  • 심사 : 2020.08.04
  • 발행 : 2020.10.20
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초록

This study presents a probabilistic time series forecast of ship structural response using Bayesian inference combined with Volterra linear model. The structural response of a ship exposed to irregular wave excitation was represented by a linear Volterra model and unknown uncertainties were taken care by probability distribution of time series. To achieve the goal, Volterra series of first order was expanded to a linear combination of Laguerre functions and the probability distribution of Laguerre coefficients is estimated using the prepared data by treating Laguerre coefficients as random variables. In order to check the validity of the proposed methodology, it was applied to a linear oscillator model containing damping uncertainties, and also applied to model test data obtained by segmented hull model of 400,000 DWT VLOC as a practical problem.

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참고문헌

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