한국지리정보학회지 (Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies)

  • 제23권4호
  • /
  • Pages.120-139
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  • 2020
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  • 1226-9719(pISSN)
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  • 2287-6952(eISSN)
한국지리정보학회 (The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies)
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시설재배를 고려한 미래 농지이용 변화와 기후변화가 관개 필요수량에 미치는 영향 평가

Assessment of Future Agricultural Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Requirement Considering Greenhouse Cultivation

  • 손무빈 (건국대학교 일반대학원 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 한대영 (건국대학교 일반대학원 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 김진욱 (건국대학교 일반대학원 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 신형진 (한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원) ;
  • 이용관 (건국대학교 일반대학원 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 공과대학 사회환경공학부)
  • SON, Moo-Been (Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Graduate School, Konkuk University) ;
  • HAN, Dae-Young (Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Graduate School, Konkuk University) ;
  • KIM, Jin-Uk (Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Graduate School, Konkuk University) ;
  • SHIN, Hyung-Jin (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • LEE, Yong-Gwan (Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Graduate School, Konkuk University) ;
  • KIM, Seong-Joon (Division of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 투고 : 2020.10.26
  • 심사 : 2020.11.19
  • 발행 : 2020.12.31
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초록

본 연구에서는 CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent)와 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 및 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere)시나리오를 사용하여 미래 농지이용 변화와 기후변화가 관개 필요수량에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 논산시(55,517.9ha)의 농지이용 항목으로 논, 밭, 시설재배지를 고려하고 DIROM (Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model)을 이용해 탑정저수지 수혜구역(5,713.3ha)에 대한 관개 필요수량(Irrigation Water Requirement, IWR)을 추정하였다. CLUE-s를 이용한 미래 농지이용 변화를 모의하기 위해 환경부의 2007년, 2013년, 2019년의 토지피복도 6개 항목(수역, 시가지, 논, 밭, 산림, 시설재배지)을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 2100년은 2013년에 비해 논과 밭이 5.0%, 7.6% 감소했으며, 시설재배지는 24.7% 증가하는 것으로 전망되었다. 미래의 농지이용과 기후변화를 모두 고려한 경우의 RCP 4.5 및 RCP 8.5 모두 2090s(2090~2099) IWR은 미래 기후변화만 고려한 경우에 비해 논과 밭에서는 각각 2.1%, 1.0% 감소하고 시설재배지에서는 11.4% 증가하는 것으로 전망되었다.

This study is to assess the future agricultural land use and climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement using CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere) scenario. For Nonsan city(55,517.9ha), the rice paddy, upland crop, and greenhouse cultivation were considered for agricultural land uses and DIROM(Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model) was applied to benefited areas of Tapjeong reservoir (5,713.3ha) for Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR) estimation. For future land use change simulation, the CLUE-s used land uses of 2007, 2013, and 2019 from Ministry of Environment(MOE) and 6 classes(water, urban, rice paddy, upland crop, forest, and greenhouse cultivation). In 2100, the rice paddy and upland crop areas decreased 5.0% and 7.6%, and greenhouse cultivation area increased 24.7% compared to 2013. For the future climate change scenario considering agricultural land use change, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 2090s(2090~2099) IWR decreased 2.1% and 1.0% for rice paddy and upland crops, and increased 11.4% for greenhouse cultivation compared to pure application of future climate change scenario.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 농림축산식품부의 재원 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해 대응기술 개발사업(과제번호 : 320051-3)의 지원과 행정안전부 극한재난대응기반기술개발사업의 연구비지원(2019-MOIS31-010)에 의해 수행되었습니다.

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