DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

크리깅 기법 기반 재생에너지 환경변수 예측 모형 개발

Development of Prediction Model for Renewable Energy Environmental Variables Based on Kriging Techniques

  • Choy, Youngdo (KEPCO Research Institute, Korea Electric Power Corporation) ;
  • Baek, Jahyun (KEPCO Research Institute, Korea Electric Power Corporation) ;
  • Jeon, Dong-Hoon (KEPCO Research Institute, Korea Electric Power Corporation) ;
  • Park, Sang-Ho (KEPCO Research Institute, Korea Electric Power Corporation) ;
  • Choi, Soonho (KEPCO Research Institute, Korea Electric Power Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Yeojin (Department of Energygrid, Sangmyung University) ;
  • Hur, Jin (Department of Energygrid, Sangmyung University)
  • 투고 : 2019.07.02
  • 심사 : 2019.10.02
  • 발행 : 2019.09.30

초록

In order to integrate large amounts of variable generation resources such as wind and solar reliably into power grids, accurate renewable energy forecasting is necessary. Since renewable energy generation output is heavily influenced by environmental variables, accurate forecasting of power generation requires meteorological data at the point where the plant is located. Therefore, a spatial approach is required to predict the meteorological variables at the interesting points. In this paper, we propose the meteorological variable prediction model for enhancing renewable generation output forecasting model. The proposed model is implemented by three geostatistical techniques: Ordinary kriging, Universal kriging and Co-kriging.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ela, E., Diakov, V., Ibanez, E., and Heaney, M., "Impacts of variability and uncertainty in solar photovoltaic generation at multiple timescales," National Renewable Energy Lab(NREL), 2013.
  2. Gonzaalez-Aparicio and Zucker, A,. "Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain," Energy, 159, pp.334-349, 2015
  3. Choi, Jongkeun, "Geostatistics," Sigmapress, 2007.
  4. Zimmerman, Dale L., and Zimmerman, M. B., "A comparison of spatial semivariogram estimators and corresponding ordinary kriging predictors," Technometrics, 33, 1, pp.77-91, 1991 https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1991.10484771
  5. Kis, Ivana Mesic, "Comparison of Ordinary and Universal Kriging interpolation techniques on a depth variable(a case of linear spatial trend), case study of the Sndrovac Field," Rudarsko-Geolosko-Naftni Zbornik, 31, 2, 2016.
  6. Lichtenstern, A., "Kriging methods in spatial statistics," M.S. Thesis, Department of Mathematics, Technische Universitat Munchen, 2013.
  7. Park, N. W. and Jang, D. H., "Mapping of Temperature and Rainfall Using DEM and Multivariate Kriging," Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 43, 6, pp.1002-1015, 2008.