한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지 (The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology)

  • 제12권3호
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  • Pages.192-200
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  • 2019
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  • 2005-081X(pISSN)
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  • 2288-9302(eISSN)
한국정보전자통신기술학회 (Korea Information Electronic Communication Technology)
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해외직접구매와 해외직접판매가 거시경제변수와 전자상거래에 미치는 영향 분석

Analysis of the effects of direct overseas purchasing and sales on macroeconomic variables and electronic commerce

  • 투고 : 2019.05.29
  • 심사 : 2019.06.23
  • 발행 : 2019.06.30
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초록

본 연구에서는 해외직접구매와 해외직접판매와 거시경제변수 간의 인과관계를 도출하고 공적분 검정, 충격반응을 이용하여 인과관계를 실증분석하였다. 실증분석에 이용된 모형은 벡터오차수정모형(vector error correlation model)이고, 거시경제변수인 소비자물가지수, GDP를 이용하였고, 전자상거래변수로는 해외직접구매, 해외직접판매, 온라인쇼핑액을 이용하였다. 실증분석결과에 따르면, 해외직접구매는 소비자물가지수와 인과관계가 있고, GDP는 해외직접판매, 온라인쇼핑액과 각각 인과관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. VECM의 충격반응분석 결과에 따르면, 해외직접구매는 소비자물가지수와 GDP에는 긍정적인 영향을 미치지만, 해외직접판매는 소비자물가지수와 GDP에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 해외직접구매와 해외직접판매 모두 온라인쇼핑액에 부정적인 영향을 미치지만, 해외직접구매가 온라인쇼핑액에 더 큰 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

This paper is analyzed causality using cointegration test and impact response after deriving a causality between direct overseas purchasing and sale and macroeconomic variables. The model used for the empirical analysis is the vector error correlation model. The model is used the macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index and the GDP, and e-commerce variables such as direct overseas purchasing, direct overseas sales and online shopping amount. According to empirical analysis, the direct overseas purchasing has the causality with the consumer price index, and GDP has the causality with direct overseas purchasing and online. According to the impact response analysis of the VECM, the direct overseas purchasing has a positive effect on the CPI and GDP, but the direct overseas sales has a negative effect on the CPI and GDP. In addition, both direct overseas purchasing and sales have a negative effect on online shopping, but it has been shown that the direct overseas purchasing has a bigger negative effect on online shopping.

키워드

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_f0001.png 이미지

그림 1. 충격반응함수 결과 Fig.1 The result of Impact Response Function

표 1. 해외직구와 역직구 현황 Table 1. The current status of direct overseas purchasing and sales

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0001.png 이미지

표 2. 국가별 해외직구와 역직구 현황 Table 2. The current status of direct overseas purchasing and sales by country

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0002.png 이미지

표 3. 상품군별 해외직구와 해외직구 현황 Table 3. The current status of direct overseas purchasing and sales using by goods

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0003.png 이미지

표 4. ADF 단위근 검정 Table 4. ADF Unit-Root Test

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0004.png 이미지

표 5. PP 단위근 검정 Table 5. PP Unit-Root Test

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0005.png 이미지

표 6. 요한센 공적분 검정 결과 Table 6. The result of Johansen cointegration test

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0006.png 이미지

표 7. 적정 시차 결정 Table 7. Appropriate lag determination

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0007.png 이미지

표 8. 그랜저 인과관계 검정 결과 Table 8. The result of Granger Causality test

JBJTBH_2019_v12n3_192_t0008.png 이미지

참고문헌

  1. EunHee Jeong, ByungKwan Lee, "A Study on Granger causality between direct overseas purchasing, direct overseas sales and domestic prices", The proceeding of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology, vol. 12, no.1, pp.149-151, 2019.
  2. Chang-Bong Kim, Cheol-Hong Min, Sang-An Park, "A Empirical Study on Determinants Affecting the Participation and Performance of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises in Global Electronic Commerce", International Commerce and information review, vol.18, no.4, pp.3-29, 2016.
  3. Statistics Korea homepage http://kostat.go.kr/
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