Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Socioeconomic vulnerability assessment of drought using principal component analysis and entropy method

주성분 분석 및 엔트로피 기법을 적용한 사회·경제적 가뭄 취약성 평가

  • Kim, Ji Eun (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Park, Ji Yeon (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Lee, Joo-Heon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 김지은 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 박지연 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 건축토목공학부) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2019.05.07
  • Accepted : 2019.06.09
  • Published : 2019.06.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Drought is a longer lasting and more extensive disaster than other natural disasters, resulting in significant socioeconomic damage. Even though drought events have same severity, their damage vary from region to region because of spatial, technical, economic, and social circumstances. In this study, drought vulnerability was assessed considering socioeconomic factors. Preliminary factors were identified from the case study for Chungcheong province, and evaluative factors were selected by applying the principal component analysis. The entropy method was applied to determine the weights of evaluative factors. As a result, in Chungcheong province, farm population, number of recipient of basic living, water fare gap indicator, area of industrial complex, amount of underground water usage, amount of water available per capita, water supply ratio, financial soundness for water resources, amount of domestic water usage, amount of agricultural water usage and agricultural land area were chosen as the evaluative factors. Among them, the factors associated with agriculture had larger weights. The overall assessment of vulnerability indicated that Cheongju, Dangjin and Seosan were the most vulnerable to drought.

가뭄은 다른 자연재해에 비해 지속기간이 길고 규모가 광범위하여 사회 경제적인 피해가 크게 발생한다. 또한 공간적, 기술적, 경제적 및 사회적 특성에 따라 같은 규모의 가뭄이 발생하더라도 피해 규모는 지역별로 상이하게 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄에 대한 사회 경제적 영향인자를 고려하여 가뭄 취약성 평가를 실시하였다. 충청도 지역을 대상으로 가뭄과 관련된 기존 사례 분석을 통해 영향인자들을 파악하고 주성분 분석을 적용하여 최종 평가인자를 선정하였다. 선정된 인자들에 대한 가중치 산정을 위해서 엔트로피 기법을 적용하였다. 그 결과 충청도에서는 농가인구수, 기초생활수급자수, 상수도요금격차지표, 산업단지면적, 지하수이용량, 1인당가용수자원량, 상수도보급률, 물재정건전성, 생활용수이용량, 농업용수이용량 및 농경지면적이 평가인자로 선정되었으며, 이 중 농업관련 인자가 큰 가중치를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 취약성 평가를 수행한 결과 청주시와 당진시 그리고 서산시가 가뭄에 가장 취약한 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_f0001.png 이미지

Fig. 1. Procedure for drought vulnerability assessment

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_f0002.png 이미지

Fig. 2. Drought vulnerability map in Chungcheong-do, Sejong and Daejeon Metropolitan-city

Table 1. Primary factors’ characteristics, sources and its effect on drought vulnerability assessment

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_t0001.png 이미지

Table 2. Procedure of principal component analysis (PCA) and entropy method

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_t0002.png 이미지

Table 3. Correlation matrix of factors for principal component analysis

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_t0003.png 이미지

Table 4. Eigenvectors and explained variance for principal component analysis

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_t0004.png 이미지

Table 5. Weights of evaluation factors applying the entropy method

SJOHCI_2019_v52n6_441_t0005.png 이미지

References

  1. Bengraine, K., and Marhaba, T. F. (2003). "Using principal component analysis to monitor spatial and temporal changes in water quality." Journal of Hazardous Materials, Vol. 100, pp. 179-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3894(03)00104-3
  2. Berry, M. W., Drmac, Z., and Jessup, E. R. (1999). "Matrices, vector spaces, and information retrieval." SIAM Review, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 335-362. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0036144598347035
  3. Choi, D. J., Park, D. H., Park, S. J., Lee, J. H., and Lee, H. J. (2009). "Development of water policy indicators : Water use indicators." Journal of Wetlands Research, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 153-160.
  4. Choi, H. I., Park, S. Y., Song, J. H., and Park, M. J. (2013). "Identification of flood risk areas using a multi-criteria decision making method." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 237-243. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2013.13.2.237
  5. Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., Van der Linden, P. J., and Xiaosu, D. (2001). Climate change 2001 : The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmenal Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Vol. 57, No. 8, pp. 267-269.
  6. Jung, H. C., Lee, W. K., and Cho, J. G. (2012). A study on climate change vulnerability for supporting pilot project of local government adaptation implementation planning. National Institute of Environmental Research.
  7. Kim, S. J., Kim, S. M., and Kim, S. M. (2013). "A study on the vulnerability assessment for agricultural infrastructure using principal component analysis." Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Vol. 55, No. 1, pp. 31-38. https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.1.031
  8. Ko, J. K. (2009). A study on vulnerability assessment to climate change in Gyeonggi-do. No. 2009-37, Gyeonggi Research Institute.
  9. Lee, J. H., Jun, H. D., Park, M. J., and Jung, J. H. (2011). "Flash flood risk assessment using PROMETHEE and Entropy method." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 151-156. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.3.151
  10. Lee, S. E. (2015a). On the development of the methodological framework for drought risk assessment. No. 15-04, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements.
  11. Lee, S. S. (2015b). Development of climate change vulnerability prototype in Chungcheongnam-do. No. 2015-01, Chungnam Institute.
  12. Lee, S. S. (2016). Drought analysis in Chungcheongnam-do according to climate change scenarios. Report, No. 2016-34, Chungnam Institute.
  13. Lee, Y. H., Oh, Y. J., Na, C. S., Kim, M. H., Kang, K. K., and Yoon, S. T. (2013). "Vulnerability assessment on spring drought in the field of agriculture." Journal of Climate Change Research, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 397-407.
  14. Myeong, S. J., and Yi, D. G. (2009). "Assessing vulnerability to climate change of the physical infrastructure in Korea through a survey of professionals." Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 347-357.
  15. Park, J. Y., Yoo, J. Y., Lee, M. W., and Kim, T. W. (2012). "Assessment of drought risk in Korea: Focused on data-based drought risk map." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 203-211. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2012.32.4B.203
  16. Pei, W., Fu, Q., Liu, D., Li, T., Cheng, K., and Cui, S. (2019). "A novel method for agricultural drought risk assessment." Water Resources Management, Vol. 33, pp. 2033-2047. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8
  17. Seong, J. H., and Byun, Y. S. (2016). "A study on the weights of the condition evaluation of rock slope used in entropy and AHP method." Journal of the Korean Society of Safety, Vol. 31, No. 5, pp. 61-66. https://doi.org/10.14346/JKOSOS.2016.31.5.61
  18. Sim, O. B. (2011). Research for water management policy preparing with climate change-Focus on drought vulnerability and policy plan of territory-. No. 2011-30, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements.
  19. Song, J. H., Kim, S. D., Park, M. J., and Choi, H. I. (2013). "Estimation of flood risk index for the Nakdong River watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 35-45. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.1.35
  20. Yang, D. M. (2017). Construction of fundamental technology for disaster risk assessment and response. No. 11-1741056-000017-01, National Disaster Management Research Institute.
  21. Yang, J. S., and Kim, I. H. (2013). "Development of drought vulnerability index using delphi method considering climate change and trend analysis in Nakdong River basin." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 33, No. 6, pp. 2245-2254. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2013.33.6.2245
  22. Yoo, G. Y. (2008). Development and application of a climate change vulnerability index. No. 05, Korea Environment Institute.
  23. Yoo, J. Y., Choi, M. H., and Kim, T. W. (2010). "Spatial analysis of drought characteristics in Korea using cluster analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 15-24. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.1.15
  24. Yoon, S. T. (2014). Development of DB and index for assessments of vulnerability on agricultural infrastructures. No. PJ008317, Rural Development Administration.
  25. Zarafshani, K., Sharafi, L., Azadi, H., Hosseininia, G., Maeyer, P., and Witlox, F. (2012). "Drought vulnerability assessment: the case of wheat farmers in western Iran." Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 98, pp. 122-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.012