Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Evaluation of the future agricultural drought severity of South Korea by using reservoir drought index (RDI) and climate change scenarios

저수지 가뭄지수와 기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 우리나라 미래 농업가뭄 평가

  • Kim, Jin Uk (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Lee, Ji Wan (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Seong Joon (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 김진욱 (건국대학교 대학원 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 이지완 (건국대학교 대학원 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 공과대학 사회환경공학부)
  • Received : 2019.03.05
  • Accepted : 2019.04.17
  • Published : 2019.06.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate (RSR) in a month. This algorithm was developed by multiple linear regression model (MLRM) which included the past 3 months RSRs data and the future climate change scenarios. In order to improve use of predicted RSR, this study need the severe criteria in terms of drought. So, the predicted RSR was indexed as the 3 months reservoir drought index (RDI3) and then it was disaggregated into drought duration, severity, and intensity. For the future RSR estimation by climate change scenarios, the 6 RCP 8.5 scenarios of HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-MR, INM-CM4, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA were used in three future evaluation periods (S1: 2011~2040, S2: 2041~2070, S3: 2071~2099). The future S3 period of HadGEM2-ES scenario which has the biggest increase in precipitation and temperature showed the largest decrease to 60.2% among the 6 scenarios compared to the historical RSR (1976~2005) 77.3%. In contrast, INM-CM4 scenario which has smallest changes in precipitation and temperature in S3 period showed the smallest decrease to 72.8%. For the CESM1-BGC and MPI-ESM-MR, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA, the S3 period RSR showed 72.6%, 72.6%, 67.4%, and 64.5% decrease respectively. The future severe drought condition of RDI3 below -0.25 showed the increase trend for the number and severity up to -2.0 during S3 period.

본 연구의 목적은 농업용 저수지 저수율 예측을 위해 개발된 회귀식에 미래 기후변화 시나리오 및 3개월 기반의 농업용 저수지 저수율 자료 및 기상자료를 이용하여 미래 저수율을 예측하는 것이다. 예측된 저수율을 3개월 자료기반의 저수지 가뭄지수로 지수화하여 가뭄 지속기간, 심도 및 규모를 산정하고 미래 가뭄을 평가하였다. 극한사상의 추정을 위해 6개의 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오(HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-MR, INM-CM4, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA)를 3개의 미래 평가기간(S1: 2011~2040, S2: 2041~2070, S3: 2071~2099)으로 구분하여 미래 저수율을 산정하였다. 산정 결과, 강수량 및 기온의 상승이 가장 큰 HadGEM2-ES 시나리오에서의 미래 저수율이 6개의 시나리오 중 S3 기간에 평년 저수율(1976~2005 기간, 77.3%)보다 가장 큰 폭으로 감소한 60.2%로 나타났다. 강수량 및 기온의 상승이 가장 적은 INM-CM4 시나리오의 저수율은 S3에서 72.8%로 가장 적게 감소했으며, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-MR, FGOALS-s2, 및 HadGEM3-RA 시나리오에서 S3 구간 미래저수율은 각각 72.6%, 72.6%, 67.4%, 64.5%로 감소하였다. 미래 저수율을 이용해 RDI를 산정하고 절단수준 -0.25 이하의 심한 가뭄 경향성이 S3 기간으로 갈수록 빈번하게 나타나며 심도가 -2.0까지 나타났다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Study area and flow chart

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Fig. 2. Run’s theory

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Fig. 3. Changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature due to climate change scenarios

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Fig. 4. Distributions of RSR3 simulated continuously by scenario

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Fig. 5. Distribution of RSR3 with initial values fixed by scenario

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Fig. 6. Monthly distribution of future RDI3 by scenario

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Fig. 7. Drought events of HadGEM2-ES and INM-CM4 by RDI3 (WA: Watershed area, EV: Effective volume)

Table 1. RSR3 Regression coefficient

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Table 2. Annual average of precipitation and average temperature in 6-scenarios by future period

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Table 3. Changes in meteorological and RSR with extreme climate change scenario

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Table 4. Cumulative drought history through the national average RDI by duration

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