DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

악재를 경험한 기업의 경영자 이익예측 정확성이 경영자 보상에 미치는 영향

The Effect of Management Forecast Precision on CEO Compensation -Focusing on Bad news Firm-

  • Lee, Eun-Ju (Business School, Pusan Natiional University) ;
  • Kim, Ha-Eun (Business School, Pusan Natiional University)
  • 투고 : 2019.01.29
  • 심사 : 2019.04.20
  • 발행 : 2019.04.28

초록

본 연구는 전년도 악재를 경험한 기업에서 경영자가 자발적으로 공시하는 미래 경영성과의 정확성이 경영자 보상에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하고자 한다. 전년도에 악재를 경험한 기업의 경우 불확실한 미래에 대한 예측 능력이 더욱 중요시 될 것이며 이에 따라 우수한 예측 능력을 가진 경영자에게 더 높은 보상을 지급할 것이라고 기대하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과 전년도에 악재를 경험한 기업의 경영자 이익 예측 정확성과 경영자 보상간의 관련성에 음(-)의 유의한 관계가 나타났으며, 이는 전년도에 악재를 경험한 기업일수록 당기 성과에 대한 경영자의 공시의 정확성이 중시되며, 시장에 경영자의 능력을 알리고자하는 신호 및 미래 불확실성을 줄이고자 하는 경영자의 노력 투입의 유인이 되어 경영 성과가 높아짐에 따라 경영자 보상이 높아지는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 우수한 예측능력을 가진 경영자가 많은 보상을 받을 것이라는 선행연구를 확장하여 전년도의 경영성과가 호재 혹은 악재인지에 따라 예측능력의 중요성이 차별적으로 경영자 보상에 영향을 미친다는 것을 검증하였다는 것에 차별성이 존재하며, 경영자 보상 계약에 영향을 미치는 결정요인을 추가적으로 파악했다는 것에 의의가 있다.

This study analyzes the effect of the accuracy of future management performance, which managers voluntarily announce in the previous year's disclosure, on managers compensation. In the case of a company that disclosed the bad news in the previous year, the ability to predict uncertain future will be more important, and expects executives with better predictability to receive more compensation. The results of this study show that there is a significant negative(-) relationship between the accuracy of the manager's earnings forecast and the performance - compensation of the firms that disclosed the bad news in the previous year. The accuracy of the manager's disclosure is important, and it is confirmed that the manager's compensation increases as the incentive of the manager's effort to reduce future uncertainty. The results of this study are as follows: there is a positive relationship between the managerial performance and the managerial competence of managers. It is important to note that there is a difference and that we have identified additional determinants of the manager compensation contract.

키워드

DJTJBT_2019_v17n4_107_f0001.png 이미지

Fig. 1. Hypothesis 1

Table 1. Descriptive Analysis

DJTJBT_2019_v17n4_107_t0001.png 이미지

Table 2. Correlation analysis

DJTJBT_2019_v17n4_107_t0002.png 이미지

Table 3. Regression Analysis (hypothesis)

DJTJBT_2019_v17n4_107_t0003.png 이미지

Table 4. Regression Analysis (Additional analysis)

DJTJBT_2019_v17n4_107_t0004.png 이미지

참고문헌

  1. B. Trueman. (1986). Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts?. Journal of accounting and economics, 8(1), 53-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(86)90010-8
  2. M. C. Jensen & K. J. Murphy. (1990). Performance pay and top-management incentives. Journal of political economy, 98(2), 225-264. https://doi.org/10.1086/261677
  3. R. A. Lambert & D. F. Larcker. (1987). An analysis of the use of accounting and market measures of performance in executive compensation contracts. Journal of Accounting research, 85-125.
  4. F. A. Lees. (1981). Public disclosure of corporate earnings forecasts. Conference Board.
  5. B. O. K. Baik, D. B. Farber, & S. A. M. Lee. (2011). CEO ability and management earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research, 28(5), 1645-1668. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.2011.01091.x
  6. J. J. Benjamin & R. H. Strawser. (1974). The publication of forecasts: An experiment. Abacus, 10(2), 138-146. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.1974.tb00013.x
  7. R. Jennings. (1987). Unsystematic security price movements, management earnings forecasts, and revisions in consensus analyst earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 90-110.
  8. R. Atiase, L. Rees & S. Tse. (2010). Beyond forecasting track records: Determinants of management earnings guidance usefulness and their effects on market reactions to guidance news. University of Texas at Austin and Texas A&M University working paper.
  9. R. A. Dye. (1986). Proprietary and nonproprietary disclosures. Journal of business, 331-366.
  10. E. F. Fama. (1980). Agency problems and the theory of the firm. Journal of political economy, 88(2), 288-307. DOI10.1086 https://doi.org/10.1086/260866
  11. S. K. Chi, S. W. Shin & S. W. Byun. (2009). The Effect of Capital Structure on Managers' Pay-Performance Sensitivity. KOREAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, 9(2), 1-30.
  12. B. Holmstrom. (1979). Moral hazard and observability. The Bell journal of economics, 74-91.
  13. I. T. Hwang. (1995). Management compensation and corporate performance. Korean Accounting Review, 20(3), 107-125.
  14. T. S. Kim, J. S. Jung & S. K. Chi. (1999). The Relationship between Managerial Compensation and Performance in Korean Companies. Korean Accounting Review, 24(2), 87-115.
  15. S. K. Chi & S. W. Shin. (2003). An Empirical Study on the Compensation Structure of Employees and Managers. Korean Accounting Review, 28(4), 85-113. https://doi.org/10.24056/KAJ.2019.08.004
  16. E. J. Lee, W. M. Sim & J. K. Kim. (2018). The Effect of Management Forecast Precision on CEO) Compensation-Accounting Performance, Journal of Digital Convergence, 16(10), 123-132.
  17. J. Core & W. Guay. (1999). The use of equity grants to manage optimal equity incentive levels. Journal of accounting and economics, 28(2), 151-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(99)00019-1
  18. S. K. Chi, S. W. Shin & M. J. Jeon. (2012). The Effects of Accounting Conservatism level on Managers' cash compensation : accounting performance Sensitivity. Korean Journal of Management Accounting Research, 12(2), 87-117.
  19. M. J. Chung & E. H. Koh. (2008). An Analysis of Strategic Use of Performance Measures in Executive Compensation Contracts. Korean Journal of Management Accounting Research, 8(1), 91-119.
  20. C. W. Smith Jr, & R. L. Watts. (1992). The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies. Journal of financial Economics, 32(3), 263-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(92)90029-W
  21. S. G. Kim. (2017). The Effect of Management Earnings Forecasts on Future Earnings Quality. Journal of the Korea Convergence Society, 8(11), 363-372. https://doi.org/10.15207/JKCS.2017.8.11.363
  22. J. H. Jeon. (2018). The Effect of Abnormal investment on Analyst Earnings Forecast. Journal of the Korea Convergence Society, 9(2), 207-215. https://doi.org/10.15207/JKCS.2018.9.2.207
  23. C. U. Hong, S. H. Lee & K. L. Kim. (2017). The Effect of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Following Dividend Announcements on Stock Returns. Journal of Convergence for Information Technology, 7(3), 105-109. https://doi.org/10.22156/CS4SMB.2017.7.3.105
  24. K. I. Kim. (2018). The Relationship Between The Type of R&D Investment and a Firm's Performance. Journal of Convergence for Information Technology, 8(4), 213-217. https://doi.org/10.22156/CS4SMB.2018.8.4.213